Although the Detroit Lions have been an offensive juggernaut, a key injury at linebacker could set their defense back in Week 12.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys have been giving up a ton of points and now face the unenviable task of trying to stop Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders.
My NFL picks are taking the Over in both of those contests while betting the Under in an AFC West clash.
Week 12 totals bets
- Lions vs Colts o50 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Cowboys vs Commanders o45 (-110 at bet365)
- Broncos vs Raiders u41.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 12 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Lions vs Colts Over 50
The Detroit Lions have averaged an incredible 39.1 points per game over their last seven contests thanks to a balanced offense that ranks third in the league in dropback EPA and second in rush EPA.
The Lions have proven that they can move the ball against anybody and the Indianapolis Colts were shredded by the Vikings and Bills in Weeks 9 and 10, surrendering more than 400 yards in both matchups.
That said, Detroit's defense has looked vulnerable at times and lost middle linebacker Alex Anzalone to a broken forearm last week. Backup linebackers Derrick Barnes and Jalen Reeves-Maybin were also already on the IR, so they'll be weak in the second level. Indy's offensive line is sixth in the league in run block win rate and should be able to move the ball with Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor.
Indy's offense struggled at the start of the year due to erratic play at quarterback, but Anthony Richardson returned from his benching last week and completed 66.7% of his passes for 272 yards with three total touchdowns. If Shane Steichen can build on his improved play-calling, the Colts will do their part to push this game past the total.
Over/Under bet #2: Cowboys vs Commanders Over 45
The Washington Commanders explosive offense sputtered on Thursday Night Football last week, finishing with just 18 points. However, they were on the road against a red-hot Eagles defense, and quarterback phenom Jayden Daniels was playing through a rib injury.
Daniels and the Commanders have enjoyed nine days off entering Sunday's clash, and if he's even close to 100%, he'll put points on the board.
Washington's offense is second in the league in EPA/Play and success rate and faces a Dallas Cowboys side that has surrendered 34.4 points per game over their last five contests. The Cowboys are now 30th in the league in defensive EPA and 32nd in defensive rush EPA, and I don't see them giving much of a defensive effort down the stretch.
That said, I also don't think their offense is quite as terrible as it has looked the last two weeks with Cooper Rush at QB. Keep in mind that they were facing the Eagles and Texans, who are both ranked in the Top-6 in defensive EPA.
On the other hand, the Commanders are 26th in defensive EPA and are weak in the secondary, with cornerback Marshon Lattimore still too hurt to make his team debut. Rush threw for 354 yards against Houston last week and wideout CeeDee Lamb will be able to separate against Washington's defensive backs.
Over/Under bet #3: Broncos vs Raiders Under 41.5
Despite the Denver Broncos exploding for 400 yards in last week's 38-6 rout of the Falcons, statistical correction looms against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that ranks first in pass rush win rate and sixth in run stop win rate.
The Broncos won't be able to do whatever they want upfront this week, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix has also performed significantly worse away from home. While Nix averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt with a passer rating of 106.1 in Denver, those numbers plummet to 5.3 and 74.9 on the road.
That said, their defense has been excellent regardless of where they've played. The Broncos are third in the league in defensive EPA and sit fourth in yards allowed per rush (3.8) and third in yards allowed per pass (5.8). They should have no problem shutting down a Raiders offense that ranks 29th in the league in yards per play (4.7).
The Raiders' offense is dead-last in rush EPA and rush success rate, and they could be even worse with two running backs sidelined. Meanwhile, their passing game is spearheaded by the mediocre Gardner Minshew, and his only quality receiver is rookie tight end Brock Bowers.
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