The NFL stuffs our stockings with a Christmas Day clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.
After playing with fire in close games for most of the season, Kansas City is starting to look like the defending Super Bowl champion in their past two outings. The Steelers, on the other hand, have lost two in a row and are coming back to earth after a 10-3 start to the schedule.
Here are my best Chiefs vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Wednesday, December 25.
Chiefs vs Steelers predictions
- Spread pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Chiefs moneyline (-149 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 42.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Chiefs moneyline (-149 at BetMGM)
Chiefs vs Steelers spread prediction
The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites for this holiday matchup, with bookies showing the Steelers some respect at home on the short week.
Pittsburgh is always a tough test inside Acrisure Stadium, and head coach Mike Tomlin is one of the best bets as an underdog since taking the job in Pittsburgh back in 2007.
That said, this is another tight turnaround for a Steelers team forced into a rough stretch of schedule. I’m leaning Chiefs below the field goal.
Chiefs vs Steelers moneyline prediction
Kansas City sits at -149 on the moneyline odds, which gives it an implied win probability just short of 60%. The Chiefs have locked up the AFC West but are trying to secure home-field advantage for the AFC postseason.
Going back to 2018, when Patrick Mahomes took over at QB, the Chiefs are 10-5 SU on the road when priced at -150 or shorter on the visitors’ moneyline.
Chiefs vs Steelers Over/Under prediction
This Over/Under opened at 42.5 O/U following this past Saturday’s game. The Steelers’ once-mighty defense has been decimated in losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore, allowing 27 points in both contests.
This Chiefs attack hasn’t been overwhelming in 2024, but it's efficient and sits third in success rate per play. Kansas City is plodding in its approach and will milk every second off the clock. I’ll lean Under 42.5.
Chiefs vs Steelers Over/Under best bet
Pick: Chiefs moneyline (-149 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming back to earth faster than Santa Claus two minutes before dawn.
Pittsburgh’s surprise 10-3 start to the season has been tested by a daunting final stretch, leaving it to drag a two-game losing skid into Wednesday’s home date with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Everything is coming off the rails this month. A once-vaunted defense has been bullied in loss to Philadelphia and Baltimore, giving up 54 points on more than 800 total yards allowed.
What's worse is that the Eagles and Ravens dragged the Steelers defense for a collective 72 minutes of on-field ass-waxing. Not only is that a ton of time logged by the Pittsburgh stop unit, but it came against the two most physical offenses in the NFL.
That leaves the Steelers tenderized on another tight turnaround and now facing a methodical Chiefs offense, one that slowly moves the chains with one of the most efficient attacks in the NFL. Kansas City is second in time of possession and runs the slowest tempo in the land.
Compounding that crunch is a long list of ailments on the Pittsburgh defense. Following Saturday’s loss to the Ravens, top corner Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury, which leaves the secondary potentially thin as CB Donte Jackson and safety DeShon Elliott missed Week 16. Starting DT Larry Ogunjobi also missed Saturday with a groin injury.
As for the Steelers' offense, that group is also hitting a snag.
Stud receiver George Pickens is questionable for Week 17 after missing the past three games with a groin injury, dragging down the production of quarterback Russell Wilson. The veteran QB was undergoing a resurgence in the Steel City, but he’s thrown for 6.2 yards per attempt over the last three outings — losing any deep-play threats.
Wilson faces an aggressive pass rush from K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, whose blitz-heavy schemes have generated the seventh-highest pressure rate in football. Wilson got a taste of Spags’ stop unit during his tenure in Denver, suffering 10 total sacks in his last three meetings with the Chiefs. An injury to Chiefs’ standout DL Chris Jones is one to watch for Wednesday.
Wilson not only sees his passing ratings at PFF take a tumble under duress, but he’s throwing into a Chiefs secondary that plays a high rate of man-to-man coverage. Wilson’s production also takes a dip versus man concepts, ranking 25th in completion rate and 22nd in accuracy against man-to-man.
Much like the bookies setting this spread below a field goal, I want to give the Steelers some respect at home. But I’m not convinced they can defeat the Chiefs given the trajectory of these two teams and matchup on Xmas Day. I’ll take Kansas City on the moneyline.
Chiefs vs Steelers same-game parlay
Chiefs moneyline
Under 42.5
Travis Kelce anytime TD
Kansas City keeps rounding into championship form with a win in Pittsburgh on Xmas Day against a dinged-up Steelers team in a short-week squeeze.
The Chiefs’ slow pace of play and K.C.’s defense getting the job done will keep scoring down in Week 17.
The Steelers have had troubles with TEs this season and Taylor’s tight end Travis Kelce delivers in the end zone on Wednesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs Steelers odds
Chiefs vs Steelers live odds
Chiefs vs Steelers opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -2.5 | Pittsburgh +2.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -150 | Pittsburgh +125
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chiefs vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
- After Saturday’s games, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites for the Xmas Day matchup in Pittsburgh.
- We’re seeing some books up the juice on K.C. -2.5 and a field goal spread could show, depending on how Pittsburgh’s injury reports look later in the week.
- The total hit the board at 42.5 points and is up to 43.5 at some books.
- The Steelers’ defensive struggles have helped three of the past five games go Over the total while the Chiefs’ offense seems to be on the uptick.
Chiefs vs Steelers betting trend to know
Since 2018, Kansas City is 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS (61%) as a road favorite of -5 or shorter. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Steelers.
Chiefs vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-25-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Netflix |
Chiefs vs Steelers latest injuries
Chiefs vs Steelers weather
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