Thanksgiving is in the rearview, which means the home stretch of the NFL schedule.
At this point, NFL markets are extremely efficient and consistently beating bookies is harder than being the last man standing in a game of “Whamageddon.”
Getting the best of the number is never more important than in NFL Week 14, and I help you isolate those spreads and totals, analyzing early line moves and projecting the pulse of the betting market.
Here are my best spreads and totals to "bet now" and some lines you’ll want to come back and "bet later" in the week with your NFL picks.
Week 14 bet now, bet later picks
- Chargers (+4.5) at Chiefs: Bet Now
- Seahawks at Cardinals (-2.5): Bet Later
- Bengals at Cowboys (Over 47.5): Bet Now
- Jaguars at Titans (Over 40.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: Bet Now
The Los Angeles Chargers ground out a win at Atlanta in Week 13 and have now picked up a victory in five of their last six games, with the lone loss coming in a 30-23 defeat to Baltimore. Not bad.
Los Angeles heads to Arrowhead Stadium for Sunday Night Football in Week 14, where the extended forecast is calling for cold and possible rain, but nothing crazy as of this writing. Oddsmakers have the host Kansas City Chiefs laying -4.5 but some books have already knocked that down a full point to -3.5 on Sunday evening.
Kansas City continues to squeak out wins, most recently needing Las Vegas to shit the bed in the final moments of their Black Friday showcase. The Chiefs have failed to cover in six straight after starting the season 5-1 ATS, earning Ws over the Raiders (twice), Carolina, Denver, and a broken Tampa Bay team in that span.
This is L.A.’s Super Bowl, having lost to K.C. 17-10 at home back in Week 4. The Bolts are in the hunt for an AFC Wild Card and present one of the stiffest tests for the defending champs in the second half of the season. Receiver Ladd McConkey did leave Week 13 with a knee injury but was seen moving around well after the game, signing jerseys for rapper Quavo.
If you’re tired of losing bets on the Chiefs or believe in the Bolts, you’ll want to grab all the points you can with Los Angeles now. Anything at +4 or higher is especially strong.
Best odds to bet Chargers +4.5 right now
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5): Bet Later
These NFC West foes played just two weeks ago, with the Seattle Seahawks scoring a weird 16-6 win over the Arizona Cardinals thanks in large part to a 69-yard interception return touchdown.
That recent result paired with contrasting finishes in Week 13 should shrink the spread on the home side. If you like Arizona, wait and see how low it will go.
The Seahawks rallied for their third straight win by beating the Jets in New Jersey on Sunday while the Cardinals collapsed at Minnesota, losing 23-22 despite outgaining the Vikings by 133 yards (then going 1-for-6 in the red zone).
That loss muddies the waters with Arizona, which has played extremely well on defense in the second half of the season, especially the pass rush. The Cardinals are much better on offense at home, averaging more than 24 points an outing, and host a Seattle squad playing its second straight away game and third road tilt in four weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (Over 47.5): Bet Now
Hell, the Cincinnati Bengals may top this total all by themselves on Monday Night Football.
Cincinnati has scored 38, 27, and 34 points in its last three games, respectively — all of which were losses vs. solid defensive teams in Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and Baltimore. Unfortunately, those foes were able to score more, boosting Cincinnati’s Over/Under count to 9-3.
Now, the Bengals come to the fast track of Jerry’s World to face a disgraceful Dallas Cowboys defense that just allowed 20 points to the Giants and a third-string QB. "America’s Team" has given up an average of 31 points against since Week 6, leading to a 5-2 O/U count.
The Cowboys are on a two-game run thanks to their offense putting up tallies of 27 and 34 points, with backup QB Cooper Rush settling in. They won’t face much pushback from Cincy’s stop unit, which watched Russell Wilson hop in the time machine for 414 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Get on this Over now as this number will likely flirt with 50 points by the time Monday night rolls around.
Best odds to bet Over 47.5 right now
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (Over 40.5): Bet Later
Trevor Lawrence probably won't be under center for the Jacksonville Jaguars after a scary hit while sliding sent him into full fencing response, putting QB2 Mac Jones into action in the second quarter on Sunday.
There will be a drop in spread and total, given Jacksonville will have a backup playing in Week 14, but just how much of a drop is Lawrence’s injury worth? Truth be told, he was having a dud of a season. Wait and see how far this total ticks down before thinking about the Over.
As for Jones, he injected the Jaguars with life, throwing for 235 yards on 20 of 32 passing with two touchdowns and nearly completed the comeback in a 23-20 loss, after Jacksonville was down 17 in the fourth quarter.
The Tennessee Titans offense is a bag of cats but the Jaguars are a huge step down in terms of competition compared to their recent run of schedule (Houston, Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Green Bay). Jacksonville entered Week 13 as the worst defense in EPA allowed per play and sat 29th in opponent success rate per snap.
See if the market makes any knee-jerk moves with Jones under center and come back later to bet the Over.
Not intended for use in MA.
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