NFL Week 3 Total Bets: Lions Do Damage in the Desert

Over/Under bet #1: Bears vs Colts u43.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

The Indianapolis Colts defense looks bad but the Chicago Bears haven't shown the ability to take advantage of that. Keep in mind that even in last week's loss where the Packers ran the ball down their throats, the Colts allowed just 16 points. The Packers leaned on their ground game so expect a similar game plan from a Bears squad that has struggled to move the ball through the air. 

Caleb Williams has looked every bit like the rookie quarterback he is. He completed 48.3% of his passes for 93 yards in Week 1 and while he threw for 174 yards last week, he averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt with two interceptions. The Bears offense is 30th in the league in EPA/play and scored just 12 points last week. While they finished with 24 points in Week 1, that number was inflated due to a pair of touchdowns from their defense and special teams.  

That said, Chicago's defense was one of the best in the league during the second half of last season and that's continued into this year. It's fifth in the league in defensive EPA and held the Titans to 244 yards in Week 1 before limiting Houston's talented offense to 19 points last week.

The Colts scored just 10 points in Week 2 and have had issues sustaining down-to-down success with the passing game, ranking 23rd in dropback success rate. Both defenses have been more vulnerable against the run than the pass, so expect these sides to run more than usual and go below the total.

Over/Under bet #2: Lions vs Cardinals o51.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

The Arizona Cardinals offense has vastly improved this season, ranking third in the league in EPA/play and scoring 28 points in Week 1 before dropping 41 last week. The line is doing a much better job in pass protection, Kyler Murray has been highly efficient (third in the league in EPA+CPOE), and Marvin Harrison Jr. gives him a true No. 1 receiver after breaking out with 130 receiving yards last week. 

The Cardinals had one of the NFL's worst defenses in 2023 and did little to solve those issues in the offseason. They are coming off a game where they allowed just 10 points but were facing a Rams side decimated by injuries on the line and at receiver. We saw what happens against a healthy offense in Week 1 when they were bullied by the Bills up front and surrendered 34 points. 

Now they face a Detroit Lions offense that can run the ball repeatedly to set up the passing game. The Lions were one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL last year and while their passing game looked out of sync in Week 1, they ran the ball effectively. Last week, they scored just 16 points against the Buccaneers but rolled up 463 yards of net offense and went just 1-for-7 in the red zone, which skewed the final results. 

Over/Under bet #3: 49ers vs Rams u43.5 (-110 at Sports Interaction)

The Los Angeles Rams mustered just 245 yards and 10 points against Arizona's mediocre defense last week. This offense has been brutalized by injuries, with three starters on the offensive line as well as their top two receivers (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua) sidelined. The Rams are 28th in the league in run-blocking, per PFF, so Kyren Williams won't have room to run. They are also dead last in pass-blocking grade, so Matt Stafford will be under constant pressure. 

The San Francisco 49ers have several key injuries on offense as well. Jordan Mason has done a commendable job of replacing All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey but wide receiver Deebo Samuel will now join him on the sidelines and tight end George Kittle is doubtful. San Francisco's offensive line has also struggled in pass protection, allowing a league-high nine sacks, which was a big reason the Niners were limited to just 17 points last week.

With how badly I expect the Rams offense to perform here, I doubt San Fran will be able to put up enough points of their own to eclipse this total.