The Seattle Seahawks have dropped three straight, while the Atlanta Falcons are looking to extend their three-game winning streak when the pair of NFC teams meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, October 20.
Seattle quarterback Geno Smith leads the NFL with 1,778 passing yards, and he headlines our top NFL picks and Seahawks vs. Falcons same-game parlay selections for Week 7.
Seahawks vs Falcons SGP for NFL Week 7
Geno Smith Over 262.5 passing yards
D.K. Metcalf Over 65.5 receiving yards
Falcons moneyline
- Geno Smith Over 262.5 passing yards
- D.K. Metcalf Over 65.5 receiving yards
- Falcons moneyline
The Atlanta Falcons have the third-lowest pressure percentage and rank 27th in pass-rush win rate, so I’m expecting Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith to have plenty of time to connect with his deep and talented collection of receivers on Sunday afternoon.
Smith has thrown for at least 265 yards in each of his past five games, yet his 7.0 yards per attempt, 7.4 aDoT, and 3.2% big-time throw rate are all still below last year’s marks.
Additionally, with the Seattle defense serving up 35.7 points per game and allowing the highest EPA per play over the past three weeks, Smith is going to have to take it to the air to keep pace with the Falcons. Atlanta has put 33.3 points per game on the board while generating the sixth-highest EPA per play, after all.
The Falcons lean on zone coverage, which has enabled opposing wide receivers to post the highest catch percentage in the league against the Falcons. It’s a perfect set up for Seattle wideout D.K. Metcalf because his yards after the catch per reception skyrockets from 2.9 in man-to-man coverage compared to 6.5 in zone.
Metcalf is also the No. 1 option in the Seattle passing attack with a team-high 22.7% target share, and his 13.3 aDoT also tops all Seahawks.
Finally, Metcalf will also likely see a steady dose of 6-foot-1 cornerback A.J. Terrell, and he’s surrendered a healthy 76.9 catch percentage for 10.1 yards per reception this season. Metcalf also has a notable size advantage at 6-foot-3.
Returning to the noted shortcomings of the Seattle defense, I do expect Atlanta to put points on the board, and the Seahawks to be chasing the game. It’s a primary reason I’ve targeted the Smith and Metcalf Overs in the Week 7 player props.
Atlanta ranks higher in DVOA and overall grade per PFF, and my Seahawks vs. Falcons predictions expect Atlanta to win in front of their fans at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday.
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