It’s a Central Division battle Thursday night, as the first-place Colorado Avalanche hit the road to take on the Dallas Stars — who sit in third, trailing the Avs by three points.
Both teams are surging. Colorado is 5-0-1 in their last six but is looking for back-to-back road wins for the first time since mid-November.
Dallas, meanwhile, is 5-2-0 in their last seven, while having ripped off six wins in their last seven at home. It’s a big reason why they’re -130 favorites in the NHL odds.
Read below as I break down this all-West matchup and offer my free NHL picks for Avalanche vs. Stars.
Avalanche vs Stars odds
Avalanche vs Stars predictions
This matchup pits two of the NHL’s highest-scoring teams against each other. The Colorado Avalanche are pumping out 3.63 goals per game, second only to the Canucks at the top of the charts.
Nathan Mackinnon netted an overtime winner in a 5-4 win over the Islanders last time out, with Miko Rantanen and Cale Makar picking up the assists. Those three Avs all rank inside the Top 14 in points this season.
The Dallas Stars are fourth in the league in scoring, tied with the Red Wings at 3.58 per contest. The Stars saw their six-game home win streak snapped Tuesday night in a 4-3 loss to the Canadiens, marking the first time in seven home games Dallas failed to score 4+ goals.
While Colorado has three of the top scorers in the game dotting their roster, the Stars’ top point-getter is Jason Robertson, who’s 33rd in scoring with 12 goals and 25 assists. Veteran Joe Pavelski and winger Roope Hintz rank inside the Top 50.
This is the second of four meetings between these teams, with Colorado taking the first game on the road 6-3. Notably, Dallas raced out to a 3-0 lead less than two minutes into the second period before the Avs scored six unanswered to win going away.
Both teams are reasonable defensively, ranking inside the top half of goals against, but both teams are still surrendering more than three goals per contest.
The Over has struck in each of the last three head-to-head battles, with each of those games clearing the 6-goal total set for tonight. Expect the lamp to light frequently on Thursday.
My best bet: Over 6 (-127 at SIA)
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Avalanche vs Stars same-game parlay
Over 5.5
Nathan MacKinnon anytime goalscorer
Joe Pavelski anytime goalscorer
Something has to give for Colorado’s MacKinnon, who’s second in the league in scoring with 20 goals and an NHL-best 41 assists. He’s coming off a 1-goal, 2-assist effort against the Isles.
He's recorded a point in 21 of his last 22 games with 14 goals and 27 assists over that span. Now he faces one of the few teams that’s had success slowing him down. In MacKinnon’s last eight games in Big D, he’s had just one point and has been blanked in three straight trips.
I believe that's more of an anomaly than a plan to shut down the explosive center working to a tee. His hot streak should continue.
Speaking of hot streaks, Pavelski has had his way with Colorado. He scored once in their 6-3 loss earlier this season, giving him goals in four straight games against the Avs.
It doesn’t matter that Dallas has lost three of their last four against Colorado. For these betting purposes, all you need is Pavelski to pot another goal for your three-leg SGP to pay out at +650.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Avalanche vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Dallas has been pegged as short as -120 favorites on the moneyline, but by Wednesday night, most books had them in the -130 range and as long as -138 favorites.
The Stars are a crisp 12-6-1 at home this season, while the Avs are hovering around .500 when they hit the highway, with an 8-7-3 road record.
Is anyone else surprised the total hasn’t yet hit 7 with two of the highest-scoring teams going at it? There was a time when this total sat at 5.5.
Since then, the line has stayed consistently above 6, with most books settling in at 6.5. Dallas' O/U record is an impressive 23-13-0, while Colorado has seen the Over go 20-16-2 in their contests.
Avalanche vs Stars betting trend to know
The Stars have won 14 of their last 15 games following a home loss. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Stars.
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Avalanche vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, January 4, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, Bally Sports Southwest |
Avalanche vs Stars latest injuries
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