It could be point night for the Toronto Maple Leafs this evening at Scotiabank Arena, as the East’s cellar-dwellers, the Columbus Blue Jackets, roll into town as +325 dogs and with No. 5 goalie Jet Greaves making his NHL debut.
The tank-for-Connor is in full swing for Columbus who sit two points out of last place. Starting a goalie with a sub-.900 save percentage in the AHL isn’t likely to secure them points in the standings tonight, but just because it’s a great matchup for the Toronto offense doesn’t mean Greaves is going to make a ton of saves.
Find out where my best bets lie in my Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs NHL betting picks and predictions.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs best odds
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
With the Blue Jackets already giving up 5.20 goals per game since March 1 and now turning to AHL rookie goalie Jet Greaves (first NHL start), the Maple Leafs will likely be playing with the lead — which hasn’t been great for their shot volume of late.
Recently, Toronto has focused on the defensive side of things when playing with a lead, leading to much smaller shot totals. It currently ranks 15th in shot attempts/60 at 5-on-5 since March 1, and 17th in unblocked shot attempts.
Looking back on the team’s last 10 games where it entered the third period with a lead, the Buds are averaging just 30.3 shots per game with a median of 29. Toronto finished with more than 34 shots just twice in that stretch, and considering they averaged 4.7 goals per game excluding shot attempts at empty nets, opposing netminders have averaged just 25.9 saves per game in those 10 games dating back to mid-February.
Sheldon Keefe’s offense takes a step back when playing with a lead, and considering the importance of health right now, it would be very surprising to see Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander play full minutes tonight.
Greaves’ save prop is sitting at 30.5 and could very much likely hit 31.5. I’d play this Under at -105 or better at 30.5, but bettors could also wait to see if it does hit 31.5 and hit the Under at -125 or better.
Either way, this Toronto team takes its foot off the gas with the lead and could easily need 36 or 37 shots for the Over 30.5 to hit. There's also the possibility that things go terribly for the rookie goaltender and he gets pulled. There are a couple of outs for this Under to hit, and a lot has to go right for it to lose in my opinion.
My best bet: Jet Greaves Under 30.5 saves (-102 at FanDuel)
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Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Regardless of how Sheldon Keefe manages the reps on this team, this is still a matchup vs. arguably the worst team in hockey.
Since March 1. Columbus ranks dead last in goals against (5.20), expected goals against/60 (xGA/60), scoring chances against/60 (SCA/60), and high-danger chances against/60 (HDCA/60). Its 86.2% SV% at 5-on-5 over that time also ranks last.
Greaves is not a top prospect and has a 3.23 GAA with a .895 SV% in 38 AHL games this season. He’ll back a team depleted of talent as Patrick Laine is out while Jack Roslovic, Adam Boqvist, and Lane Pedersen are all questionable and more doubtful than anything as the Blue Jackets’ quest for the basement is in full swing with six games to go.
The moneyline has certainly been onesided as the Leafs opened as long as -350 but moved to -425. These two teams played a home-and-home with the Leafs closing as -255 favorites in Columbus and then at -360 at home the next day in a 4-3 loss.
Toronto has been dealing with a revolving door of players dressing as Keefe prioritizes health over results with six games to go, a four points lead in the division, and a game in hand.
Mitch Marner was at the morning skate and looks to be drawing back in after missing the loss to Detroit on Sunday. Ryan O’Reilly skated but looks like he won’t suit up tonight, and there were 12 forwards at practice, meaning the Leafs will get away from dressing seven defensemen tonight.
It hasn’t been a great stretch for the Buds — who are 8-8 with a negative goal differential since March 1 — but tonight is not a night I’m looking to fade the home side unless I can get a puck line of +2.5 at -125 or better, which is unlikely.
It could be point night for Toronto and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the bottom-six forwards get more ice time — especially if its is playing with a multiple-goal lead later in the game. The Leafs' team total sits at 4.5 paying -115 to the Over. The home side should find the scoresheet early and often vs. the most generous team in hockey.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
In the last game Woll faced the Blue Jackets, Over bettors got a gift with a closing total of 6.0. That isn’t happening tonight.
Since March 1, the Blue Jackets are seeing an insane average of 8.12 total goals per game. Their goaltending is horrific and will now turn to their No. 5 goalie tonight in Greaves. The Over 6.5 is 8-2 in Columbus’ last 10 games.
The Leafs will also be motivated to get the offense going, and the BJs could be a good slump-buster. Toronto sits 17th in goals per game since March 1 at 3.13, 17th in goals/60, and 14th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. They’re 15th in HDCF/60 but should get plenty of high-quality scoring chances vs. a suspect Columbus team.
The Blue Jackets could also contribute to tonight’s offensive output. They are missing some big names but guys like Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau, Kirill Marchenko, and Kent Johnson have all been producing of late with 19 of the team’s 42 goals over the last 30 days.
They might sit at the bottom of most defensive metrics, but the offense has been average which might be worth two goals tonight vs. a Toronto team that sits 19th in GAA since March 1 and ranks 23rd in xGA/60 at even strength.
This total opened at 7.0, moved to 6.5, and is threatening to hit 7.0 again. Both teams to score two goals is -210 and the Leafs’ team total is sitting at 4.5. A 5-2 Toronto win is the shortest of all the final score odds.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Over is 8-2-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last 11 vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs.
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 4, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, TSN4 |
Blue Jackets vs Maple Leafs key injuries
