The early-season panic has seemed to wear off, as the Toronto Maple Leafs are riding a four-game winning streak and are coming off a thrilling 2-1 OT victory over the Lightning Thursday. Up next for the Buds are mortal rivals the Boston Bruins, who are winners of four of their last six.
The Leafs opened up -123 on the moneyline and have been bet up to -130. The total sits at 5.5 (-110). Linus Ullmark will start for the Bruins, while the Leafs will likely counter with Jack Campbell.
Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Maple Leafs for Saturday, November 6.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Bruins vs Maple Leafs picks
Picks made on 11/06/2021 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bruins vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NHL, NESN, Sportsnet, CBC
Bruins vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Bruins: Nick Foligno F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (2018-20)
Bruins: 9-5 SU, 50 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-9 SU, 35 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Bruins’ last seven games as a road underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Maple Leafs.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Maple Leafs ML (-130)
After an underachieving start, the Maple Leafs have hushed the critical media and fanbase and have strung together four straight wins including a 2-1 OT victory versus the Lightning on Thursday. The top lines have shown some life but it has been the play of twine defender Jack Campbell that has stood out the most.
Since coming over to the Leafs, Campbell is 25-7-4 with a 2.16 GAA and .923 save percentage. He has five of the team’s six wins and can still be had at +1,800 to win the Vezina. He has been the most valuable player on this Toronto side all season and has allowed more than two goals just twice in his nine games.
Campbell will be tasked with shutting down a Boston offense that scores 2.75 goals per game (18th), sits 15th in expected goals for at 5-on-5, and has scored just seven goals in its four games against teams with a winning record.
Boston’s weakness is secondary scoring, as it has collected just four goals from its bottom-two forward groups this season. The Leafs play the possession game better than anyone and should give Boston’s top lines trouble, as they are accustomed to playing with the puck as a Top-5 Corsi and Fenwick percentage team.
The Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the league and have the best expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5. But Toronto has shown lately that it has no problem winning close games, as five of its six wins have been by one or two goals. Since swapping defenseman Timothy Liljegren for Justin Holl, the Leafs have allowed just one goal in over 120 minutes.
Boston starter Linus Ullmark has been great to start the year with a sub-2.30 GAA. But this is still the same goalie with a career 2.76 GAA. He also has a 3.79 GAA and a .874 save percentage over his career against the Leafs in five starts and is 1-4 SU.
Boston has had its way with the Leafs over the years, but these teams haven’t seen each other in two calendar years and feature different rosters outside of the top lines.
Toronto closed at -140 versus the Lightning and now are -130 versus the B’s. If we backed the Buds at that price versus Tampa, we have no problem hitting them on the ML against Boston at a better -130. The Leafs have been at home since October 30, have not had to play any back-to-backs, and don’t hit the road until November 10. This is a good price and a great spot for the Leafs.
Under 5.5 (-110)
At 3-8 O/U, the Leafs have started the season as one of the best Under teams in hockey. At home, they’ve allowed just 14 goals in seven games and have hit the Under in five of those games. Campbell sits in the Top 5 in goals saved above expected and has a filthy 0.98 GAA with a .961 save percentage in five home games this year.
No team is playing tighter hockey than the Bruins at even strength this season, as they have the lowest expected goals at 5-on-5. This should minimize the chances for the Leafs, who led the league in expected goals for at even strength. If Ullmark can post a 2.24 GAA to open the season, it says something about coach Bruce Cassidy’s system and how tough it is to play against.
Campbell is on another level right now and has held the Golden Knights and Lightning to just a single goal in back-to-back games, stopping 77 of the last 80 shots he’s seen. Soupy has been exactly what this team has needed with an emotional start to the year.
No Boston total handicap is worth it without looking at that deadly power play. The Bruins are scoring on 25 percent of their man advantages, which is a Top-10 mark in the league, but are just 1 for 10 on the PP on the road this year. The Buds have been solid at home in killing penalties, too, as they have killed 16 of 18 penalties at Scotiabank Arena and are one of the more disciplined teams, taking the third-fewest penalties per game in the league.
Unders are hitting at 56 percent across the league and we are predicting another tight game between two teams who don’t like each other.
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