We have six games on the NHL betting slate today, including a matinee matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs at PPG Paints Arena.
With the Pens on a day game after a late afternoon start yesterday, the quick turnaround for Pittsburgh gives the Leafs a big-time advantage. The Buds should hit the score sheet early and often, as my free Maple Leafs vs. Penguins predictions and NHL picks for Sunday, March 2 explain.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins prediction
My Leafs pick
Leafs to score first (-155 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking for a fifth straight win exiting the 4 Nations break and their seventh road win in the last month.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been piling up losses left, right, and center. Pittsburgh lost to the Bruins Saturday afternoon, marking the team’s fifth loss in its last six games. The common theme to all these losses is the inability to strike first, as the Penguins have given up the first goal in five of those six games.
Furthermore, this has been an issue for Pittsburgh all season long as they’ve surrendered the first goal of the game this year 38 times (61%), the most among all teams in the NHL.
With Pittsburgh playing on less than 24 hours rest and the Buds being red-hot on the road, I expect the Leafs to score the first goal.
Toronto owns the best road record in the NHL since Christmas at 10-3, which goes along with its 36% powerplay conversion rate and league-best 3.69 away goals per game in that stretch. The Pens are 4-6-2 at home in the same period while ranking 29th in goals against per game with a 62% penalty kill.
Ultimately, the Penguins are not a good hockey team this season. They rank in the bottom third of the league in every defensive and goaltending metric.
This bodes well for the Buds, who are an elite team when it comes to generating and producing high-quality chances. Toronto ranks sixth in high-danger goals at 5-on-5, while the Pens have given up the sixth most high-danger goals themselves.
Additionally, the Pens are expected to turn to rookie netminder Joel Blomqvist in goal after Alex Nedeljkovic got the start Saturday against Boston. The first-year goaltender hasn’t won a start of his since November and has a 3.63 GAA and an .890 SV% this season.
I expect the Leafs red-hot road offense to score on him early and often.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins same-game parlay (SGP)
Leafs to score first
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
Leafs moneyline
Let’s add Auston Matthews to register 3+ shots on goal to this SGP. The Leafs captain has hit this number in seven of his last nine games, and in nine of his last 10 against the Penguins.
For the final leg of our SGP I’m taking the Leafs on the moneyline. The Buds are rolling and well-rested heading to Pittsburgh. Toronto is 5-2 on the moneyline in the last seven meetings between these two clubs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Penguins odds
Maple Leafs vs Penguins live odds
Maple Leafs vs Penguins opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 | Pittsburgh +1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto -170 | Pittsburgh +149
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Penguins trend
The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Penguins
| Location | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Sunday, 3-2-2025 |
| Puck drop | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Penguins latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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