Night five of the Stanley Cup Playoffs features four games on the betting slate this evening, including Game 3 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins.
My NHL picks are in lockstep with oddsmakers in anticipating another star performance from Auston Matthews. However, my Bruins vs. Maple Leafs predictions for Wednesday, April 24 are looking for value elsewhere.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs prediction
My best bet
Tyler Bertuzzi anytime goal (+260 at SIA)
My analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins moves north of the border for tonight's Game 3 showdown with the series knotted at one game apiece.
The Leafs have to be pretty happy with the outcome through the first two games. They’ve controlled play pretty well, have matched Boston’s physicality, and seem to have Auston Matthews firing at will after a monstrous game two.
What could he possibly have in store for an encore?
His line — Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi flank him on the wings — has been the most dominant trio in the early going, averaging 5.87 expected goals per 60 with a 75% high-danger rate. Sure, it’s been a small sample size, but it’s also a continuation of how those three ended the regular season averaging a league-best 6.51 goals per 60 minutes of play.
Through two playoff games, Matthews and Domi have been the beneficiaries of this high-octane production, but Bertuzzi gets his due tonight and finds the back of the net for some juicy value (+260).
He was a beast on Monday night with five shots on goal. Technically, he had a sixth shot that hit the twine but was disallowed due to a high stick. However, that shows that Bertuzzi has a knack for being in the right spots.
Based on his five-goal playoff output in just seven games for Boston in 2023, we know this to be the case. Furthermore, the underlying numbers through the first couple of games suggest that his play should yield a goal soon. He’s second on the team with seven shots on goal and eight credited individual scoring chances, with four of them being of the high-danger variety, according to Natural Stat Trick.
One of these chances is bound to go in for Big Bert, and he offers significantly better value on this market than Matthews, who is listed at -143 to score tonight.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Bertuzzi anytime goal
Maple Leafs to score first
Maple Leafs TT Over 2.5
Grabbing the game's first goal will be crucial for the Leafs, who will feed off the home crowd's energy. Plus, Toronto scored first in 58% of their games this season.
For my final leg, I like the Leafs to go Over their team total of 2.5 goals. Despite being held to just four goals through two games, the Leafs have 4.04 expected goals per game. Tonight, they’ll need to convert more of those chances to win. Perhaps William Nylander’s return could give them a boost.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs odds
Bruins vs Maple Leafs live odds
Bruins vs Maple Leafs opening odds
- Puck line: Boston +1.5 (-270) | Toronto -1.5 (-220)
- Moneyline: Boston -105 | Toronto -115
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100)
Bruins vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the book favorites for the first time in the series at -115, while the Bruins are slight dogs at -105 on the road.
- The Leafs have been the better team through two games, but have struggled on home ice this year, barely getting over .500 on the moneyline (22-19).
- The total is set at 5.5 goals, with the Over favored at -120, while the Under is paying even-money (+100).
- The Over/Under is 6-6 over their last 12 meetings.
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Bruins vs Maple Leafs trend
The Maple Leafs have hit the third period moneyline in four of their last five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Maple Leafs.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-24-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, NESN |
Bruins vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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