Canada and Finland enter their final round robin game tied in the standings at two points apiece with the ability to advance straight to the final with a regulation win.
My Canada vs. Finland predictions expect the Canadians to lean on their firepower and overwhelm the Finns in a convincing win.
Let’s take a closer look with my free betting picks for February 17.
Canada vs Finland prediction
My pick
Canada -1.5 (-130 at BET99)
My analysis
Canada has picked up just two points through two games but they are still in control of their own destiny. They will advance with a regulation win against Finland regardless of what happens in Sweden’s game vs. the United States, as Canada holds the tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head win in the opener.
Canada has yet to truly dominate a team in this tournament and I expect that to change against Finland.
The Finnish blueline was not great on paper to begin with. Sans Miro Heiskanen, it is alarmingly bad. The top pairing of Niko Mikkola and Esa Lindell is solid — at least defensively — but there is an immense dropoff after that.
No matter how Finland deploys its pairings, they are going to play a lot of minutes with the likes of Olli Maatta, Henri Jokiharju, Urho Vaakanainen, and Nikolas Matinpalo going up against lines featuring Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon. It’s unlikely to end well.
USA is the only other team that features the kind of starpower Canada does. They flexed their muscles in a big way, stomping Finland by a 6-1 scoreline while generating nearly five expected goals.
Finland had no answer for the never-ending wave of speed and high-end skill USA possesses, and they should run into that same problem against Canada.
While Canada didn’t play its best against USA, they still created 3.79 expected goals and generated more scoring chances than they gave up — and they did so without superstar defenseman Cale Makar.
After suffering a disappointing loss on home soil to their biggest rivals, Canada will no doubt be motivated to get a win and return the favor in the finals.
Canada vs Finland same-game parlay (SGP)
Canada -1.5
Canada Over 3.5 goals
Finland Under 2.5 goals
Canada has yet to play its best hockey. Even so, they scored four goals against a quality Sweden team and followed that up by generating 3.79 expected goals vs. the United States.
Connor Hellebuyck came up with several excellent stops that perhaps made the scoreline a little deceiving in terms of how much Canada threatened offensively.
Juuse Saros has not played up to his standards this year and Kevin Lankinen has never been a starter at the NHL level. Put simply, Finland doesn’t have a Connor Hellebuyck to replicate that kind of performance.
If Canada can generate opportunities, which shouldn’t be an issue against a lackluster Finnish blueline, the goals will likely come early and often.
Finland has scored four goals through 120 minutes of regulation play and generated only 42 shots over two games. They do have a few high-end forwards but lack depth and the defense isn’t capable of providing much, if any, juice offensively.
Canada should be able to dominate the run of play and hold Finland to two or fewer.
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Canada vs Finland odds
| Canada | Finland | |
|---|---|---|
| -413 | Moneyline | +336 |
| -2.5 (+127) | Puck line | +2.5 (-146) |
| Over 6.5 (+112) | Total | Over 6.5 (-128) |
Odds courtesy of BET99.
How to watch Canada vs Finland
| Location | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date | Monday, 2-17-2025 |
| Puck drop | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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