The Montreal Canadiens conclude their three-game homestand tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
A lot is riding on this game as the red-hot Canadiens could close the gap in the standings to as little as one point with a win against the Bolts.
My Canadiens vs Lightning predictions expect a competitive matchup between the teams, with Patrik Laine continuing to play his best hockey on home ice.
Let’s take a closer look with my NHL picks for Tuesday, January 21 ahead of this 7 p.m. ET puck drop.
Canadiens vs Lightning prediction
My Canadiens pick
Patrik Laine Over 2.5 shots on goal (-110 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
Patrik Laine has given the Montreal Canadiens a big lift offensively since returning from injury. He has been especially productive on home ice, where head coach Martin St. Louis can get him out against third lines and fourth lines on a routine basis.
Laine has averaged 1.2 points and hit the scoresheet in eight of 10 games in Montreal. Those outputs are drastically different than what he has produced on the road, where he has just three points through eight games.
We’ve seen a drastic split in Laine’s shot generation as well. He has averaged 3.1 shots on 6.1 attempts per game when playing in Montreal. His numbers don’t hold up on the road as Laine averages 2.3 shots on 4.0 attempts away from the Bell Centre.
The gap has grown even larger of late. Laine has piled up 8.0 attempts per game over his last five at home compared to 3.6 spanning the past five on the road. Night and day.
Laine finds himself in a nice spot to keep the shots flowing tonight as the Tampa Bay Lightning are in the latter half of a road back-to-back after playing in Toronto on Monday.
They have not defended well of late, giving up the sixth-most shots over the last 10 games. The Bolts have conceded more shots to wingers in that span than all but the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks — two rebuilding teams sitting in the NHL's basement.
Laine recorded three shots in his previous meeting against Tampa Bay, which came on the road. Look for him to fare as well or better at home.
Canadiens vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Patrik Laine Over 2.5 shots on goal
Anthony Cirelli Over 1.5 shots on goal
Canadiens +2.5
Anthony Cirelli started the season a little slowly in terms of shot generation. He has since ramped things up in a huge way, recording multiple shots in 24 of his past 30 games. That’s an 80% hit rate dating back to early November.
Cirelli has done his best work on the road, where he has cleared this number in 13 of 14. That checks out as Cirelli is generally tasked with the toughest possible assignments when playing in Tampa Bay.
Another element working in Cirelli’s favor is he was recently moved up to the top power-play unit. That means extra ice time alongside Tampa Bay’s best weapons like Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman, which provides more opportunity to generate shots.
The Canadiens are one of the hottest teams in the NHL and they’ve only lost by more than two goals once in the past five weeks. With a rest advantage at home against a divisional opponent, I expect the Canadiens will keep this one close.
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Canadiens vs Lightning odds
Canadiens vs Lightning live odds
Canadiens vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Montreal +126 | Tampa Bay -142
- Moneyline: Montreal +1.5 (-205) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+174)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+104) | Under 6.5 (-119)
Canadiens vs Lightning trend
Patrik Laine has recorded at least three shots in four of his past five games in Montreal. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Lightning.
How to watch Canadiens vs Lightning
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-21-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RDS |
Canadiens vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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