The Toronto Maple Leafs’ offense continues to be stale down the stretch, averaging just three goals per game over its last 10 contests and struggling to score on high-danger chances.
Things could turn tonight vs. the Montreal Canadiens, who are giving up a lot of quality chances on a lost season.
However, there are no discounts on the Leafs tonight, who enter with NHL odds of -380 as home favorites and the No. 2 spot in the division locked up.
With nothing really to play for, a traditional game plan and minute distribution are not guaranteed tonight. That could lead to fewer minutes for some bigger Toronto players making the Unders on their NHL player props very much in play.
Find out where my favorite bet lies with my free NHL picks for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs tonight.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs best odds
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs have nothing to play for with the second seed locked up in the Atlantic. At practice today, Sheldon Keefe got creative as Ryan O’Reilly jumped onto the first power-play unit, relegating William Nylander to the second group.
That should cut into Nylander's offensive opportunities and considering the bottom-six forwards could also see bigger minutes, it’s not a great night for betting Nylander Overs.
PP1 sees Ryan O’Reilly swap in for William Nylander.
— David Alter (@dalter) April 8, 2023
Nylander on PP2
Nylander could also be in the doghouse after playing just 13:32 in Boston on Thursday in a 2-1 loss, and this demotion to the second power-play unit could have a lot to do with what Keefe thinks of his current play.
Willy has just one point in his last seven games with a minus-five rating. He's recorded 10 points since March 1 — an 18-game stretch — but also had four points on the power play. His play has been up-and-down and right now... it’s down.
His Under 3.5 shots on goal is the most probable bet to hit, as we could see another sub-14-minute game with health also prioritized over results. His Under 0.5 points at plus money is also on the table, but I’m taking the shots as volume will be an issue.
He’s 4-14 O/U on this prop since March 1 — and that was with PP1 time and 18-19 minutes a game.
My best bet: William Nylander Under 3.5 shots on goal (-120 at Sports Interaction)
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Canadiens vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Let me preface this by saying this is not an easy game to handicap. The Leafs locked up home ice in their first-round matchup with the Lightning and will likely be prioritizing staying healthy over winning.
We’re seeing that in the moneyline, as the Leafs sit as -380 home favorites but closed as -430 in the last meeting against the Montreal Canadiens on home ice, back in February.
There are a ton of uncertainties with this team, which just sent down its No. 2 goalie, Joseph Woll, to the AHL and currently has Ilya Samsonov and an injured Matt Murray on the roster.
It also appears that the defensive pairing of Morgan Rielly and TJ Brodie could get the night off as Sheldon Keefe continues to give some days off to key players down the stretch.
Montreal is a gutted team that has 12 players currently out. You can say “They always get up when facing the Leafs” — and there’s certainly some truth to that, with Montreal taking seven of the last 10 meetings, all as an underdog from +177 to +331. However, when looking at the roster it’s tough to get excited about backing the Habs here at a price 50 points shorter than the last meeting... with a worse lineup tonight.
Toronto has struggled to score goals of late and has a Bottom-5 shooting percentage on high-danger shots since the trade deadline. Those chances should turn into goals sooner rather than later, but Montreal goalie Sam Montembeault has played well behind an awful lineup and his goals saved above expected/60 is on par with Samsonov’s.
The Habs are a decent underdog play here but the Leafs’ underlying metrics are showing a goal breakout soon. With the roster the Habs are rolling out, I don’t trust this Montreal offense that has been shut out in back-to-back games if it has to keep pace with the Leafs.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
With a Samsonov vs. Montembeault matchup, there is certainly some value in the Under 6.5 at +105.
Montreal’s offense is limping to the finish line, having scored just two goals over its last three games and sitting in the Bottom 5 in expected goals for at all strengths since March 1.
Toronto could win this game by four goals and still hit the Under with the play of Samsonov at home — sporting a 2.02 GAA and .926 SV%.
When Toronto plays with late leads, it tends to cut into the offensive production, and with the bottom-six forwards likely to get a bigger run today in a meaningless game, late goals from this Toronto team could be tough to come by.
I also wouldn’t read too much into the Leafs possibly missing Rielly and Brodie, as this is a very deep blue line and the Canadiens aren’t much of an offensive threat — especially without Leaf killer Josh Anderson in the lineup.
The Leafs are also getting experimental with the power play as Erik Gustafsson was getting PP1 reps today at practice and O’Reilly tagging in for Nylander.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Under is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs Maple Leafs.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, April 8, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs key injuries
