The Montreal Canadiens are set to build off Monday’s 7-5 win over the Sabres when they head to Xcel Energy Center to face the Minnesota Wild on Thursday, November 14.
While Minnesota has been among the league’s best, our Canadiens vs. Wild predictions and NHL picks are calling for the Habs to hang tough with Minny tonight.
Canadiens vs Wild prediction
My Canadiens pick
Canadiens +1.5 (-110 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
This nod is more about the Minnesota Wild than the Montreal Canadiens. It’s rare to see a +1.5 head start on the puck line in this price range, and while Montreal has struggled to start the year, Minnesota has definitely been the beneficiary of incredible puck luck.
The Wild have the second-highest PDO and are also tied for the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. A second-ranked .935 team save percentage and fifth-ranked 10.5 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 will gloss over a lot of underlying shortcomings.
For comparison, a similarly structured Minny squad posted respective 8.89 and .910 marks last season. Statistical correction looms in the Twin Cities.
Minnesota also hasn’t been particularly impressive on special teams with a 13th-ranked 20.8 power-play percentage and 25th-ranked 75.0 penalty-kill percentage, and Montreal is actually better in both, with respective 23.2% (ninth) and 80.4% (16th) marks.
Still, the big draw is the Habs building off Monday’s offensive breakout and No. 1 goalie Sam Montembeault turning the page and turning in a solid showing. Montreal generated nine high-danger scoring chances and 3.19 expected goals against Buffalo and won both battles with an overall 81.8 HDCF% and 66.9 xGF%.
Additionally, while Montembeault sports a discouraging .890 SV%, 3.42 GAA, and -0.33 goals saved above average per 60, he posted .903, 3,14, and 0.03 marks last year, which reinforces my belief he’s better than his play to this point of the season.
Again, these NHL odds aren’t giving Montreal enough credit and aren’t pricing in the unsustainable run Minny has been on at 5-on-5 to start the year.
Canadiens vs Wild same-game parlay (SGP)
Canadiens +1.5
Under 6.5
Matt Boldy Over 3.5 shots
The pending statistical correction ahead for the Wild at 5-on-5 is especially prominent for their offense. They’ve scored 2.85 goals per 60 despite generating just 2.12 per 60. Paired with improved play from Montembeault, Minny is set up to help this Under.
Additionally, the Habs rank 22nd in expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5, so they’re not bringing an elite offense to the table either.
Turning to Wild winger Matt Boldy, he’s recorded 4+ shots in six of his past nine games and paces Minny in both shots (11.17) and attempts (19.65) per 60 minutes. Plus, Montreal has surrendered the eighth-most shots per game and fifth-most to opposing wingers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Canadiens vs Wild odds
Canadiens vs Wild live odds
Canadiens vs Wild opening odds
- Puck line: Montreal +1.5 (-115) | Minnesota -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Montreal +220 | Minnesota -270
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Odds courtesy of BET99.
Canadiens vs Wild trend
The Canadiens have covered the puck line in 52 of their last 83 games (+11.95 units / 9% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Wild.
How to watch Canadiens vs Wild
| Location: | Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, Minnesota |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-14-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN2 |
Canadiens vs Wild latest injuries
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