The Washington Capitals halted a four-game skid last night with a win over Pittsburgh, and now they'll take on another Metro rival in the New Jersey Devils.
New Jersey looked like a force to be reckoned with ahead of the season, but shaky goaltending and injuries have it sixth in the division and two points behind Washington. Despite the records, NHL odds wasted no time labeling the Devils as road favorites for tonight's affair.
Offense has been hard to come by for the Caps, but 38-year-old Alex Ovechkin is tied for the team lead with 22 points on the season — including goals in back-to-back.
I've taken a look at the "Great 8's" NHL player props to see where the market stands and I've found a play I'm happy to jump on. Find out what that is in my free NHL picks for the Devils vs. Capitals on January 3.
Devils vs Capitals odds
Devils vs Capitals predictions
Alex Ovechkin is just 64 goals away from passing Wayne Gretzky as the all-time leading scorer, and after last season's 42-goal outing, it looked like that record-breaking goal would come in the 2024-25 season. With such a slow start this year... that doesn't seem so likely.
Despite just eight goals in 35 games, Ovechkin's confidence hasn't wavered. He's taken 130 shots up to this point, good for 15th in the NHL, and his shots per game average of 3.71 isn't far off from last season's average of 4.02. The biggest difference is his shooting percentage, which is a career-low 6.2%.
For context, his shooting percentage was 14.3% last year, and I don't expect Ovi to maintain an 8% drop-off for the entire season. He's overdue for some positive regression, with his individual expected goals (ixG) sitting at 14.35. Simply put, Ovechkin's been firing, pucks just haven't been finding the back of the net... until recently.
The Great 8 has scored in back-to-back games and he now faces a New Jersey Devils side giving up 3.54 goals per game. Digging a little deeper into the numbers, we can see that the high number is more due to the netminding woes than the volume of shots New Jersey gives up (29.3 spg).
The Devils may be able to suppress the Washington Capitals as a whole, but as we've seen time and time again Ovechkin will get his shots off. In the last meeting between these teams on Nov. 10, New Jersey held the Caps to 28 shots and Ovi still managed three. He only picked up an assist in that meeting, but for tonight's, I expect him to pick up a tally for the third game in a row.
My best bet: Alex Ovechkin anytime goalscorer (+180 at Pinnacle)
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Devils vs Capitals same-game parlay
Alex Ovechkin anytime goalscorer
Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 shots on goal
Over 5.5
Ovechkin has shown a tendency to score in bunches during his Hall of Fame career, and with shots now finding the back of the net, I expect him to keep firing with confidence. Tonight's total is right around his average on the season and it's one he's cleared in seven of his last 10.
As for the total, I'll happily drink a little juice and take the alt 5.5 line instead. The Capitals' defense has overachieved this season but has been in rough shape recently, giving up three or more goals in four straight. There may also be some tired legs on defense with Washington having played in Pittsburgh 24 hours prior.
As for the Devils, they gave up 3.42 goals per game in December without the services of Dougie Hamilton, and although I expect New Jersey to do most of the lifting to get this thing Over, I believe the Caps will chip in enough to help out.
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Devils vs Capitals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Devils opened up at -160 on the moneyline and remain in that range as of writing, with some books having them as short as -170. If you're looking to back the Caps, you can get them around +140 on the ML, depending on the book.
As for the total, it opened at a flat 6 but has since been bet up to 6.5. There are still a couple of rogue 6s out there, but you'll have to pay some juice if you want to go that route. The O/U records for these sides couldn't be more opposite, as New Jersey's is 22-12-1 with Washington's at 12-22-1.
Devils vs Capitals betting trend to know
The Devils have hit the game total Over in 56 of their last 92 games (+18.95 units / 18% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Devils vs. Capitals.
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Devils vs Capitals game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 3, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Devils vs Capitals latest injuries
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