NHL Draft Odds, Picks, Best Bets 2023: Michkov Gaining Steam in Top 3 Talks

I released my best plays last week for Wednesday's 2023 NHL Draft before Bob McKenzie’s final mock draft, and I'm happily sitting with some solid CLV for the majority of the plays after the NHL Draft odds movement. 

However, despite the market becoming more efficient, there is still some value to extract from this draft in the coming days as the Top 5 picks are anything but locks. More information is rolling out the closer we get to the big day on Wednesday. 

Last year, Shane Wright was -380 to go first overall the week of the draft and fell to fourth, which could have been found at 60/1 days out. Are there any more potential goldmines for bettors with the draft hours away and information swirling?

With the draft just hours away, here’s my breakdown of the 2023 NHL draft. 

NHL Draft picks and predictions

Matvei Michkov draft position: Under 5.5

Matvei Michkov is the biggest mystery in this year’s draft. He just finished a solid campaign in the KHL (Russia) with the worst team in the league Sochi HC (11-47 SU) where the winger had nine goals and 11 assists in 27 games. That might not seem like a lot, but per The Washington Post, that’s the best points-per-game rate by any draft-eligible Russian player from the KHL since 2008.   

Michkov loses some points in being a winger and the lack of time teams are getting with the Russia prospect, but thanks to the second-best offensive skillset in the draft, some mocks have him going as high as No. 2.

According to @FriedgeHNIC,
- Michkov is rising & people don't think he'll go past Philly ????
- LA Kings still have the edge on Dubois, but the Habs could re-enter the race based on Michkov decision
- The Habs could be willing to MOVE DOWN if they don't get the player they want. pic.twitter.com/XYvExs3GoO

— Habs Fan TV (@habsfantv_) June 27, 2023

He is still under contract with SKA St. Petersburg until the end of the 2025-26 season, but his ceiling might make one Top 5 team take a chance since competing in 2023 might not be in the cards for the Blackhawks, Ducks, Blue Jackets, Sharks, or Canadiens. 

If any of the teams are going to take a swing on the winger, it’s likely going to be one of the teams in the No. 2 to No. 5 spots, and getting the +150 makes the risk a lot less.

With Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen mentioning he is going to draft a “franchise center” at No. 3, that would likely leave the Sharks and Canadiens to take the winger, and Montreal had an interview with him this week.

Bob McKenzie (TSN), Scott Wheeler (The Atheltic), Corey Pronman (The Athletic), Craig Button (TSN), and many others all have Michkov going in the Top 5 in their final mocks.

Pick: Matvei Michkov Under 5.5 (+150 at DraftKings)

Tanner Molendyk draft position: Over 28.5

WHL defenseman Tanner Molendyk’s Over 28.5 market might be juiced to -180, but there is still value there with my mock aggregate having an average of the 44th pick and a median of 45th. 

Shame @nhlflyers don't have 2nd rounder (yet).

Because while think 1st round Dmen are below average v usual draft?

I think some steals can be had in 2nd.

Dragicevic likely goes in 2nd.
Lindstein, Morin, Akey, Cagnoni, Bertucci, Molendyk, Strathmann, Price

All 2nd pair upside.

— Alexander Appleyard (@avappleyard) June 26, 2023

This was one of the first markets I hit last week and got his Over 27.5 at -175 (bet365) while DraftKings had it at 28.5 and -180 to Over. Well, DK is still hanging an Over at -180 while 365 has moved to 28.5 and paying -200 for the Over. 

Adam Kimelman (NHL) doesn’t have Molendyk as a Top-10 defender, Bob McKenzie has him going on the second day, and the Sportsnet final mock has seven D-men going in the first round with none of them being Molendyk. 

He sits 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds but is a left-handed shot which is less coveted. He has exceptional skating abilities, but when the total is at 28.5 and even the mocks that do like him have him very close to this number, I’m laying the juice as there are just too many connected sources saying this guy is going mid-second round or later — Dobber Hockey, Yahoo, and The Hockey News have him 49th, Daily Face Off and The Hockey Writers are at 48th, and Sportsnet is at 68th.

Pick: Tanner Molendyk Over 28.5 (-180 at DraftKings)

Michael Hrabel draft position: Over 32.5

There is one goalie bettors can bet on going in the first round or not, and that’s USHL product Michael Hrabel. The 18-year-old Czech-born goalie is the No. 1 ranked netminder, but most of the respected draft analysts don’t have him getting picked on Day 1. 

It’s also projected to be a very deep draft for skaters, and the reliance on high-end tendies is waning in the NHL with teams like Vegas creating a new blueprint for goalie roster management.

Hrabel has seen a little movement to the Over 32.5 since opening but I have him graded between 38 and 39. His Over 32.5 can still be found at +114 at FanDuel, while DraftKings is at +105 and bet365 at +100. 

On my aggregate rankings, only two mocks have Hrabel Under 32.5: The Hockey News at No. 25 and Craig Button at No. 26. Bob McKenzie has him at 39 while some mocks have him in the 50s. I have his median at 38 and his average at 36.9. Couple that with some plus-money Over odds and this is a late pick I love. 

Hrabel is moving to the University of Massachusetts and although he possesses size and athleticism, I don’t see enough connected analysts high on the goalie. 

Pick: Michael Hrabel Over 32.5 (+114 at FanDuel)

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