The Philadelphia Flyers head across the state to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Sunday afternoon. The Penguins are home favorites against their cross-state rivals on the NHL odds board.
The Flyers are coming off a 2-1 home loss to the Rangers on Saturday afternoon. That was a hard-fought game from Philadelphia with a goalpost in the final seconds saving the Blueshirts from going to overtime.
The Penguins got back on track on Thursday night with a 4-1 win against the Canadiens. They’re looking to make a push for the playoffs ahead of the trade deadline.
Who will win this chapter of the Battle of Pennsylvania? Read on for our Flyers vs. Penguins NHL picks on Sunday, February 25.
Flyers vs Penguins odds
Flyers vs Penguins predictions
Many expected one Pennsylvania team to be in a playoff spot in late February, but it’d be hard to find someone who thought it’d be the Philadelphia Flyers. They currently sit in third place in the Metropolitan Division at 30-21-7 (67 points) while the Pittsburgh Penguins have just 58 points at 25-21-8.
The Flyers didn’t earn a point on Saturday afternoon against the first-place Rangers, but their effort was admirable.
"We came out hard, we finished hard," Flyers forward Scott Laughton said. "Needed a bounce here or there and it's a tie game. Guys battled hard for each other tonight. Take a lot of positives out of it. Obviously, you want the two points, but we stuck with it."
Laughton is one of a few Flyers who find themselves in trade rumors ahead of the deadline. He extended his point streak to six games with an assist on Tyson Foerster’s tying goal in the third period. It was Foerster’s first game back from a short absence due to a foot injury.
Foerster has been one of the best defensive forwards in the league this season with his 1.94 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 ranking fourth among 270 players with at least 700 minutes played, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Flyers are going to need defensive efforts like his on Sunday afternoon with backup Cal Petersen slated to start in net. Petersen is 2-1-0 with a 3.00 GAA and .890 SV% in four games this season, but only allowed two goals in a win last time out.
The good thing is that the Flyers have been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season. They have an 11th-best 2.86 goals against per game and boast the seventh-best xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
The Penguins are a bit better overall with just 2.65 goals against per game (fourth best in the league) despite the 12th-worst xGA/60 at 5-on-5. A lot of that has to do with their goaltending, with Tristan Jarry boasting a 2.46 GAA and .916 SV% this season.
Two of three meetings this season went Under 6.5 goals with the first matchup seeing two goals in the final seven minutes to send it to overtime, where the Flyers won 4-3.
Expect another intense, low-scoring game in this Battle of Pennsylvania.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (-132 at FanDuel)
Flyers vs Penguins same-game parlay
Under 6.5
First-period Under 1.5
Flyers +1.5
The Flyers and Penguins have both been great Under teams this season. The Under is 33-18-3 in Pittsburgh’s games and 31-23-3 in Philadelphia’s.
They’re also two of the lower-scoring teams in the opening frame. The Penguins have scored 42 goals in 54 first periods while allowing 47. That’s the fourth-fewest goals for and eighth-fewest against.
Meanwhile, the Flyers have the 11th-best goals against (50) and 10th-worst goals for (47). These teams haven’t met in nearly two months so it may take some time to feel each other out.
Finally, the Flyers may not have rest on their side but they should be energized and much more prepared for an afternoon start against the Penguins on Sunday. They should be able to keep the game close and it wouldn’t shock me if they pull off the upset as road underdogs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Flyers vs Penguins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Flyers odds opened at +140 and haven’t moved too much since then. They’re as high as +146 (FanDuel) and the money should continue to come in against them as the road team is on a back-to-back.
Meanwhile, the Penguins opened at -166 and are largely there across the board. However, some books are as long as -155 as of Saturday night.
The total opened at a flat 6 and remains there at most books. You can get Over 6 (-103) and Under 6 (-115) or Over 6.5 (+108) and Under 6.5 (-132) at FanDuel.
I would play the Under 6.5 up to -140 in which case I would then be comfortable going down to Under 6 and risking the push. As far as a side is concerned, I'd play the Flyers at +155 or better.
Flyers vs Penguins betting trend to know
The Penguins have stayed Under the total in 48 of their last 79 games (+18.00 units / 21% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Penguins.
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Flyers vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, February 25, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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