The Toronto Maple Leafs picked up two points last night against Columbus in another up-and-down game for the Buds and now they’ll have a quick turnaround, facing the Seattle Kraken at home tonight as big NHL betting favorites.
The Leafs won convincingly in Seattle, 6-2, on Valentine’s Day in a game that saw Jack Campbell picking up the victory.
Are we ready to trust Campbell here on a back-to-back with his recent struggles? Can the Kraken generate any offense despite being one of the league’s worst offensive teams? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Kraken vs. Maple Leafs.
Kraken vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs opened as -270 favorites on the moneyline and have moved slightly to -275 with a total of 6.5 that leans to the Under. In the previous meeting on February 14, Toronto closed as -250 road favorites with a total of 6.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Kraken vs Maple Leafs predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105)
- Best bet: Matthews anytime goal (-110)
Predictions made on 3/08/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kraken vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, March 8, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4
Kraken vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Kraken: Brandon Tanev F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Kraken vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record
Kraken: 0-1 SU, two goals scored.
Maple Leafs: 1-0 SU, six goals scored.
Betting trend to know
The Kraken are 0-5 SU in their last five vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Kraken vs. Maple Leafs.
Kraken vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Puck line analysis
The Leafs gave fans another scare last night in their 5-4 win versus the Blue Jackets as they blew their early 3-0 lead and needed a two-goal third period to eke out a victory.
This team is a rollercoaster and has had issues with playing down to its opponent, which might not be great news for those who will lay -275 on the Buds tonight at home versus the Kraken.
Toronto flew in late last night in poor weather conditions and traveling home for the second game of a back-to-back sometimes gives a bigger advantage to the visiting team, as coming home means responsibilities which equals time.
The Leafs should absolutely roll the Kraken tonight with the way the Mitch Marner-Auston Matthews-Michael Bunting line has been playing, but this is a team that sits dead last in save percentage since January 1 and has lost as -200 favorites or more five times in their nine games.
A big factor in this game will be the play in net for the Leafs. Jack Campbell posted a 23-save victory in the last meeting, but since then, he has given up 20 goals over his next five starts, including five goals allowed in three of them.
He's dealing with some mental struggles right now and, for his health, we hope he gets over them. However, this is a hard goalie to back and has been receiving a ton of offensive support that has helped him pick up wins.
Seattle scores at a Bottom-5 rate but we’ve seen bad offenses have no problems filling the net against the Leafs as Buffalo, Montreal, Vancouver and Detroit have all hung crooked numbers on Toronto over the last two weeks. But can the Kraken hang with the Buds with another poor performance in net as the Leafs have no problem going toe-to-toe to pick up a win?
The Kraken have suffered from poor goaltending all season and allow 3.5 goals per game which is also a Bottom-5 mark. Philipp Grubauer (unconfirmed), has allowed three or more goals in eight of his last nine games and was pulled in the previous meeting after allowing three goals on just 11 shots in 20 minutes.
Seattle is getting healthier with the return of Jared McCann and Jaden Schwartz but this is still a team that can’t hang with the offensive power of the Leafs. We’re thinking the Kraken can hit the three-goal mark — but with poor goaltending and a penalty kill that has allowed five goals over its last three games — it's going to be their downfall once again tonight.
The Leafs might start slow with a little jetlag, but keeping the top line off the scoresheet will be next to impossible for Seattle.
This moneyline is only 20 points different than the last meeting and although the Leafs are on a back-to-back, this is much different than the -400 line versus the Sabres.
We like Toronto to take the second meeting in a similar fashion with a game it needs to win for Campbell's sake. Leafs on the puck line it is.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
This is a game that features two teams that rank in the Bottom-4 in save percentage since Jan 8. Goaltending has been an issue for both clubs in 2022 while the Leafs’ combination of leaky play in the rear with a red-hot Matthews has Toronto at 18-6-2 O/U across its last 26 games.
The Over has also been cashing with great frequency in Campbell starts which is no surprise as the netminder has a 3.61 GAA and a .883 SV% in 2022. Over his last 13 starts, the Leafs’ goalie is an incredible 12-1 to the Over. He gets a ton of offensive support and is going through some mental struggles which have turned his starts into track meets more often than not.
Offensively, the Leafs managed six goals in the last meeting on just 25 shots which is how the Kraken’s season has been going in between the pipes.
Grubauer and backup Chris Driedger both sit in the Bottom 10 in the league in goals saved above expected which has helped Seattle to go 33-23 to the Over on the season. The Leafs and Kraken are two of eight teams in the league with at least 31 Overs on the season.
Toronto could also get some great looks on the power play. The Kraken have the league’s fourth-worst penalty kill and have been getting torched recently having killed just three of their last eight penalties. The Leafs went a perfect 2 for 2 in the previous meeting with Mitch Marner and Ondrej Kase burying power-play markers.
There is a ton of value on this Over as it was as low as +100 for the 6.5 but is starting to inch up. This is a Toronto team that is constantly seeing totals of 6.5 that lean to the Over. This is a decent price in a game featuring two teams who can’t stop the puck.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105)
Best bet
Auston Matthews has 30 goals over his last 33 games, he is running away with the Rocket Richard race and is being leaned on heavily as of late as the Leafs cannot hold a lead and the second line is drying up offensively. Nobody is better at scoring at 5-on-5 than Matthews who also leads the league in that category.
Some books have this priced as low as -155, so the FanDuel price of -110 is a steal for the hottest scorer in the league facing one of the worst goaltending teams in the NHL.
Pick: Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (-110)
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