Lightning vs Devils Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Hagel Capitalizes on Opportunity

The Tampa Bay Lightning and New Jersey Devils will meet for the second time in two days at the Prudential Center in Newark following the Bolts’ convincing 4-1 win on Tuesday.

The Lightning took the win as a +130 dog without Steven Stamkos (questionable), but it was more of a collapse of New Jersey goalie Vitek Vanecek, who finished with -2.17 goals saved above expected on 30 shots. 

With Stamkos questionable for tonight, is his replacement worth the risk without knowing the star winger’s status? 

Find out my best NHL bets for Lightning vs. Devils.

Lightning vs Devils best odds

Lightning vs Devils picks and predictions

Without knowing the starting goalies, I’m heading to the player prop market for my best bet.

Brandon Hagel is a decent target, as he is up with the top line and playing on the first power play unit with Steven Stamkos out. However, Stamkos was a full participant at practice yesterday but was playing on the third line with Ross Colton and Nick Paul. He's dealing with a knee injury but it looks like Hagel could stick on the top line.

Hagel is being rewarded after recording three points on Tuesday and has played big minutes of late — more than 20:00 over his last four. The winger has also recorded a point in three straight and in four of his last five.

If Vitek Vanecek starts, this would improve my confidence in the play even if Hagel plays on the second power play. New Jersey doesn't take many penalties and Hagel will get more of a run with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. It would be tough for Jon Cooper to break up the line after a win and a two-goal performance Tuesday.

#GoBolts rush lines for today’s practice in New Jersey.

Hagel-Point-Kucherov
Klllorn-Cirelli-Jeannot
Colton-Stamkos-Paul
Maroon-Eyssimont-Perry

Hedman-Perbix
Sergachev-Raddysh
Cole-Cernak
Fleury-Bogosian

— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) March 15, 2023

There are some angles I like on the New Jersey side, such as Jesper Bratt Over 2.5 shots on goal at +105, as he is back on the top power-play unit and playing wing with Timo Meier and Jack Hughes, but Hagel for a point at -122 with the top line is a solid opportunity at that price.

New Jersey isn’t the best matchup and I do like the home side at its current price of -130, but with some inconsistent goaltending in New Jersey and the Lightning running their top line for 20 minutes a game in all game scripts, the opportunity is massive. 

Tampa Bay is playing four games over its next six days, and heading home after tonight so there is a chance Stamkos doesn't get his full run and cedes power-play minutes to Hagel.    

My best bet: Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 points (-122)

Lightning vs Devils moneyline analysis

When I handicapped this game on Tuesday, Vitek Vanecek was my one worry and he let me down. He's now posted a pathetic .862 save percentage over his last seven starts despite a winning record.

Tampa went on to win Tuesday’s game 4-1 but it also finished with just 1.83 expected goals and did so without Stamkos, who is again questionable for tonight’s contest. Money Puck had the Devils winning that game over 61% of the time, which puts it on par with the -145 closing moneyline price which moved 10 points once Stamkos was ruled out.

The win was the Lightning’s first vs. a playoff team in six attempts. Over the last 30 days, this is still a Tampa team that sits 24th in point percentage at 5-6-4 with a negative goal differential. 

The Tampa win was more of a letdown from goalie Vitek Vanecek and if the Devils and Lindy Ruff go with Akira Schmid in net, I’d be happy to jump back on the Devils, who haven’t dropped back-to-back games at home since Christmas, at -130.

Schmid is 3-0-1 over the last two months with a 1.44 GAA and a .944 save percentage. He hasn’t been a busy backup, but he has been much better than Vanacek who is weathering down the stretch and relies heavily on a team that minimizes its opponents scoring chances and shots on goal. 

The Devils, as mentioned on Tuesday, can also take away the strength of the Bolts — their second-ranked power play. New Jersey kept the Tampa power play in check on Tuesday and has killed 21 of its last 22 penalties. New Jersey also takes the third-fewest penalties in hockey.

This might be a wait-and-see as I don’t want to bet on Vanecek, but if Schmid draws the start, I’m good with the better team at a price 20 points longer than on Tuesday.

Lightning vs Devils Over/Under analysis

There wasn’t a lot of action on Tuesday which finished with just over 4.00 expected goals. That included a shorthanded goal and another Tampa goal scored with one second remaining in the second period. 

Tampa may have the best home offense in hockey, but on the road, it ranks 22nd in goals per game, at 2.91, which is more than a full goal lower than its home offense. 

New Jersey is also a better team to target for Unders at home as its road offense is the second-best in the league but the home offense tightens up and scores 0.70 fewer goals than on the road.

The back-to-back matchup also favors the Under in my opinion. It might be a bit subjective, but when two playoff teams meet in consecutive games, it’s going to be a tight game with each team and coaching staff having a better idea of the adjustments that are needed to be made. 

If we see Vanecek, I’m off this total, but a Scmid start might push me to an Under at 6.5 at -105 or better.

Lightning vs Devils betting trend to know

The favorite is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Devils.

Lightning vs Devils game info

Lightning vs Devils key injuries

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