The Tampa Bay Lightning will wrap up a six-game road trip tonight in Seattle when the Atlantic’s No. 2 team will take on the Kraken, who have just one regulation win over their last 13 games.
Are the Bolts back to their winning ways after snapping a three-game skid Sunday with a win in Vancouver? Is there any value in the home dogs here at +240 despite just two wins over their last 13 games? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Kraken.
Lightning vs Kraken odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Lightning opened as -310 road favorites and have moved slightly to -300 with a total of 6, leaning to the Under. Tampa Bay won the only previous meeting 3-0 as -175 home favorites, which was an awfully short ML price.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lightning vs Kraken predictions
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lightning vs Kraken game info
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
• Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Lightning vs Kraken betting preview
Key injuries
Lightning: None.
Kraken: Alex Wennberg F (Qustionable), Joonas Donskoi F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Lightning vs Kraken head-to-head record
Lightning: 1-0 SU, three goals for.
Kraken: 0-1 SU, zero goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Kraken are 0-6 straight up in their last six games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Kraken.
Lightning vs Kraken picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Puck line analysis
The Lightning will finish up a six-game road trip in Seattle tonight and although the results so far haven't been ideal — 2-3 straight up — John Cooper’s club is coming off a needed victory over the Canucks that snapped a three-game skid. The offense hasn’t been hot with only four goals across its last three games, but facing the Kraken, who have allowed the fourth-most goals in the league and 21 goals over their last five, should help the two-time defending champs get back on the scoresheet.
Despite the recent road struggles, the Bolts are 17-9 SU since January 1 and may not need their best game tonight to walk away with two points. Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming off a 35-save, 2-1 win versus the Canucks, which should help the confidence after a four-game stretch where he allowed 16 goals in four games.
Vasilevskiy will face a Kraken offense that sits 30th in the league in expected goals at 5-on-5 and the league’s 28th ranked power play. Even with the Kraken getting healthy, this is not a worrisome offense and a unit Vasilevskiy shut out in the previous meeting, needing only 17 saves to do so.
The Kraken are scoring just 2.31 goals per game since the beginning of 2022, which is the worst mark in hockey. It’s a big reason they are 8-21 SU over that stretch with the second-worst power play and the fifth-worst penalty kill. There aren’t many aspects of this Seattle team we like, even as huge home underdogs. If you’re laying money on the dogs here at +250, it’s likely just because of the price.
Seattle has dropped each of its last six games when listed as +200 underdogs or longer and is 2-9 SU on the season. Goaltenders Philipp Grubaur and Chris Driedger have also not helped out the struggling team this season, and own GAA’s north of 3.00 and save percentages south of .900 over the last 75 days.
With the advantage at seemingly every part of the lineup and a schedule that last saw them play three days ago, we’re all in on the Bolts here and have no problem taking them on the puck line as they’ll want to wrap up this road trip on a high note, and the Kraken are the perfect opponent to help that cause.
Prediction: Lightning -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under analysis
The last meeting closed with a total of 5.5 and that’s where this total could be heading. It opened at 6, -120 to the Under, but some auxiliary books have this game at 5.5.
The Bolts have hit the Under in three straight as the offense has dried up slightly having scored just four times in those three games. They haven’t managed more than 32 shots in any of the five games of the current road trip and are 0 for 16 on the power play.
The Lightning haven’t been a Top-10 offensive team at even strength this season and sit 13th in expected goals at 5-on-5. They also sit outside the Top-10 in Corsi%. This is still a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs, but this offense isn’t in the top tier of the NHL, especially when the power play isn’t rolling.
The Bolts don’t need to score four goals to win games either as 14 of their 44 wins (32%) on the season have come when scoring three goals or less. Vasilevskiy is coming off a one-goal performance and faces an offense that has scored more than three goals just five times over its last 29 games.
Despite the losses piling up, the Kraken have actually been a decent team defensively at 5-on-5 this season. They sit 11th in expected goals against at even strength and 15th in Corsi%. This is a big defensive group that can play physically, and if Grubauer or Driedger can put in a decent performance, should keep this game from getting out of hand.
With us expecting the Bolts to cover, we might not even see any empty-net chances, and with the Kraken not playing for anything, there is no reason for Dave Hakstol to pull the goalie down three like many teams are doing right now.
With the Lightning power play in a lull and Tampa likely to roll, we aren’t expecting two-way scoring here and we’ve seen Tampa play turn real defensive with multi-goal leads.
Prediction: Under 6 (-120)
Best bet
No team allows more goals at home than Seattle at 3.77 per game, and with a power play and penalty kill that rank in the Bottom 5 of the league, we have zero faith in the Kraken as huge home dogs here.
Tampa will want to wrap up its road trip with a victory and head back to Amalie Arena with a 3-3 SU mark on the trip, which would be positive after starting it 1-3 SU. Tampa shut out the Kraken in the previous meeting and held this anemic offense to just 17 shots. It’s the Bolts on the PL for us Wednesday night.
Pick: Lightning -1.5 (-105)
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