Lightning vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Defensive Issues Plague Toronto

The Toronto Maple Leafs will welcome the reigning Stanley Cup champions to Scotiabank Arena Thursday night, as the Tampa Bay Lightning look to push their win streak to five games while Toronto will look to beat the Bolts for a second time on home ice this season.

Can the Leafs tighten up the backend even with all the moving pieces to the lineup? Can the Lightning keep rolling on this five-game road trip that has them 3-0 SU and outscoring their opponents 13-5.

Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Toronto opened at -125 on the moneyline and has moved to -130 as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 6 but has moved to 5.5. The Leafs closed as -135 ML favorites in the November 4 meeting (Toronto won 2-1 in OT) with a total of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Lightning ML (+110)
• Prediction: Over 5.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Lightning team total Over 2.5 (-117)

Predictions made on 12/9/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, December 9, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, BSSUN

Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Lightning: Nikita Kucherov F (Out), Brayden Point F (Out), Erik Cernak D (Questionable).
Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Out), Jason Spezza (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out), Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (last 10)

Lightning: 6-4 SU, 35 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-6 SU, 25 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the Lightning’s last six vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Leafs are coming off a 5-4 win over the Blue Jackets that was a lot more one-sided than the score shows. Toronto led 5-1 heading into the third and got the victory with a new lineup that also halted a two-game losing skid. Mitch Marner, Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin, and Jason Spezza are all out for the Buds but can this team play a 60-minute game against a Tampa team that is rolling without Brayden Point?

Over their last 14 games (30 days), the Lightning have lost in regulation just twice, are scoring 3.36 goals per game, and allowing 2.21 goals, which is the second-lowest mark over that stretch next to the Leafs (2.00 goals allowed). 

Since Point has been out, the Bolts are 7-2-1 with two of those wins coming in overtime. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a major factor in the team’s success of late, as he has a 1.88 goals against average and .936 save percentage over that stretch. He’s allowed just nine goals over his last six games and is currently the betting favorite to win the Vezina. He finished with 1.95 goals saved above expected in the earlier meeting this year and was the reason Tampa picked up a point in the OT loss. 

We know that Leafs goalie Jack Campbell can shut the door as well, as he did on that November 4 meeting, but he’s allowed at least three goals in three straight starts, which is a little concerning. The Leafs are missing Marner a ton, as he is possibly the most versatile player on the team. Toronto has given up 16 goals in its last four games, which were as many as it had allowed in its previous 10 games. 

With Marner, Spezza and blueliners Dermott and Sandin out, Toronto will have to play a nearly perfect game versus the Bolts as Vasilevskiy likely won’t give up four goals. Auston Matthews is hot and the top line is producing, but the second line got outplayed versus Columbus (22% Corsi) and the blueline has become an issue, with Sheldon Keefe needing to rely on Justin Holl and Jake Muzzin more with the third pairing of rookie Kristians Rubins and Timothy Liljegren.

This line closed -135 in favor of the Leafs in the previous meeting. Marner and Point’s absences are a wash but the Bolts come in playing better hockey despite a weak set of opponents. Vasilevskiy has the slight advantage in net, both teams’ 5-on-5 play is similar production-wise while Tampa has the edge on the blueline by a substantial margin tonight with a third pairing that consists of Mikhail Sergechev and Cal Foote. 

This -130/+110 price is a 50/50 split as 20 cents is given to the home side. With Toronto having not played tight defensively of late, we have to take the visitors here.

Prediction: Lightning ML (+110)

Over/Under analysis

Over the last four games, the Leafs are 4-0 to the Over as their games have seen a total of 36 goals. Marner’s importance is starting to show, especially on the penalty kill, where the Leafs have killed just seven of their last 12 penalties — all in the absence of their star winger. 

Campbell is also riding a mini-slump. Over his last three starts, he has a -0.17 goals saved above expected, which isn’t terrible, but it just shows that the Leafs are giving up quality chances of late and if Campbell plays averagely, the Leafs are likely to give up two to four goals. 

The Over is 6-4 in the Bolts’ last 10 games while Vasilevskiy is 4-8 O/U since the beginning of November. He isn’t one of our favorite choices to hit with an Over and considering he hasn’t seen a total of 6 in 10 straight starts, why would we get an opening total of 6 tonight then when the last meeting closed at 5.5?

Well, for starters, that game finished with more than 6.00 expected goals despite the 2-1 final. Toronto's special teams are not to be trusted with an Under of late, as 11 power play goals have been scored in Toronto’s last three games. The Leafs’ power play alone has six goals over its last three contests. Defensively, the Leafs have also given up 14 goals since their win over Colorado with an average xgoal total of 7.74 in the trio of games.

Vasilevskiy is one of the best goalies in the league, but this is as hot as the Toronto offense has been all season and is averaging 3.98 xgoals per game over its last four. Matthews has scored in seven straight games and has 10 total goals over that stretch. He also won’t have to see Point who has become one of the better two-way centermen in the league. The last change should also help Keefe keep his scoring lines in advantageous positions. 

We’re trusting the market here in what looks like a classic Under game between two of the East’s best but a ton of underlying numbers suggest otherwise. The market has hit 5.5 after opening at 6 -115 to the Under and will likely bounce around up until puck drop.

 Prediction: Over 5.5 (-120)

Best bet

With a low total (5.5) and +110 underdogs, the Lightning’s team total of 2.5 sits at -117 to the Over. The Leafs have given up 17 goals over their last four games with 14 of those being expected. Campbell seems to be coming back to Earth after one of the best stretches of goaltending this season while the Leafs’ penalty kill has really let them down in the absence of key pieces.

Tampa managed just a single goal versus the Leafs in the last meeting but finished with 2.99 xgoals. Campbell was playing better then, the defense was at full strength, and the penalty kill was one of the best in the league at that point. All of those key aspects have now swung in the favor of the visitors and getting a Tampa team total of 2.5 at this price is not a common occurrence. The Lightning have scored three or more goals in 12 of their last 13 games and get to see a Toronto team that has three new players in the lineup due to injuries and suspensions. 

Pick: Lightning team total Over 2.5 (-117)

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