Lightning vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: No Home Shock in Store

The Toronto Maple Leafs, fresh off a 4-0 win over Vegas and riding a three-game winning streak, host the reigning Cup champions in the Tampa Bay Lightning at home Thursday night.

The Lightning are riding a three-game winning streak of their own and should pose a much more difficult threat to Toronto than a short-handed Vegas squad. Toronto opened as -127 on the moneyline with the total set at 6. 

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs for Thursday, November 4.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Lightning vs Maple Leafs picks

• Maple Leafs (-127)
• Under 6 (-105)

Picks made on 11/3/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, November 4, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, BSSUN

Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Lightning: Nikita Kucherov F (Out), Zach Bogosian D (Out).
Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record

Lightning: 5-3 SU, 30 goals for (2018-20).
Maple Leafs: 3-5 SU, 20 goals for (2018-20).

Betting trend to know

The Under is 10-1-1 in Lightning’s last 12 games as a road underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Maple Leafs (-127)

The Leafs are coming off their best game of the season, a 4-0 blanking of the visiting Vegas Golden Knights, which was the team’s third win in a row. Sheldon Keefe has been mixing up his defense pairings and forward lines to productive success, while the once-stale Toronto power play has been resurrected and has goals in back-to-back games after going 0 for 17 over its last seven contests.

Goalie Jack Campbell played amazingly again Tuesday, finishing with 1.8 goals saved above expected in the shutout win. Mitch Marner finished with three points and got the proverbial monkey (and the Toronto media) off his back while Auston Matthews, now on a line with William Nylander and Michael Bunting, had another two goals and is getting hot after returning from wrist surgery. This team looks much better than a week ago and with the Lightning coming to town, we actually get a decent price on the Leafs.

The Leafs have consistently been around -200 favorites except for the game versus the Hurricanes. These prices have shied many away from taking the Leafs but Thursday is a different story, with Toronto opening at -127 on the moneyline. 

The Lightning have ripped off three straight wins against the Penguins, Coyotes, and Capitals, but were coming off a three-game losing skid before that and travel to Canada for the first time since the 2019-20 season for a brief two-game road trip before heading back home for another four games. 

Tampa Bay has five wins on the year against Washington (twice), Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Detroit. Three of those victories came by a one-goal margin with two going to overtime. The Bolts rank 22nd on the power play, 14th on the penalty kill and have played a lot of hockey over the last 12 months. Tampa is still one of the betting favorites to win the East, but this is the best price we’ve seen for Toronto. 

Campbell can steal a game, the offense has confidence, and Tampa will be dealing with traveling into Canada for the first time since early 2020. 

If the Leafs had thrown up a dud on Tuesday, we might be thinking about the Bolts here, but Keefe’s group got their fecal matter together and look to be past some early-season struggles. Toronto is also in the middle of a comfortable home stretch that has zero back-to-back games. 

Under 6 (-105)

Combined, both clubs have started the year 7-9 O/U. On totals of 6 or higher, Tampa is 2-3-1 O/U while Toronto is coming off an Under on a 5.5 and is 3-6 O/U on totals of 6 or higher.

The Leafs lead the league in expected goals for, but they haven’t played many good goaltenders, and facing former Vezina winner and reigning Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vaslivevskiy won’t help in burying their high-quality chances. Vaz has allowed just four goals over his last three games and is the betting favorite to capture the Vezina this year.

The Leafs’ power play has scored in back-to-back games but it still sits in the bottom-10 in success rate over the last two weeks. Even worse than them is Tampa, who has gone 2 for 15 with the man advantage over that stretch. Both teams are slightly above league average in penalty killing as well.

Toronto playing with confidence is a much different team, in regards to defensive responsibilities. Gone is Justin Holl, who was struggling on the second blueline pairing, and has been replaced by former first round pick Timothy Liljgren. The blueline was legit on Tuesday and held the Golden Knights to 1.8 expected goals in all situations including on the penalty kill.

Jack Campbell has been the best Leaf all season and we like him to continue his hot play at home where he has lost just two games over his last 11 regular season starts. Give us the Under 6 on Thursday night.

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