With 24 of the league’s 32 teams set to be in action, we have a jam-packed Saturday of NHL games to look forward to.
There are plenty of attractive spots on the board, but I see the most value in backing a couple of veteran shooters against exploitable defenses, as well as Connor Bedard in his homecoming game.
Let’s take a closer look with my NHL player props for November 16.
NHL prop picks and best bets for November 16
Mikael Granlund Over 2.5 shots on goal (+115 at bet365)
Kevin Fiala Over 2.5 shots on goal (-142 at DraftKings)
Connor Bedard Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at bet365)
Picks made on 11-16 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Mikael Granlund Over 2.5 shots on goal
Mikael Granlund has played a massive role on this rebuilding San Jose Sharks team. He leads all Sharks forwards in total ice time, clearing second-place William Eklund by more than 40 minutes. He’s playing a lot at even strength and is a regular contributor on both special teams units as well.
Granlund’s made the most of his opportunity, finding the scoresheet regularly while piling up the shots.
He has 64 shots on target through 18 games played. That’s 12 more than his closest teammate and equates to a healthy average of 3.55 per game.
Granlund has consistently cleared his 2.5 line, going over the number at a 72% clip thus far. His Unders came against Winnipeg, Colorado, Los Angeles, Minnesota, and Columbus – all of whom are strong defensive teams and good at limiting shots.
He has hit in anything resembling a half-decent matchup. He sure has one tonight against the Pittsburgh Penguins, who rank fifth in 5v5 pace and 28th in shot suppression over the past 10 games.
Likely to log 20+ minutes against a high-event team laboring defensively, Granlund is in a prime position to build on his shooting success.
Prop bet #2: Kevin Fiala Over 2.5 shots on goal
The Detroit Red Wings have been a targetable team for opposing shooters since their first game of the season and they haven’t provided any reason to get away from that. The Red Wings continue to give up plenty of volume on a nightly basis, ranking 24th in 5v5 shot suppression (and 25th on the penalty kill) over the last 10 games.
Fiala has gone a little cold of late, producing seven shots over his last four games. That coincides with a big step up in competition, though, as Fiala failed to go Over against Columbus, Vancouver, and Colorado.
The Red Wings are a drastically worse defensive team that spends a lot of time on its heels each night. They just lost to a putrid Ducks squad and are now playing in a road back-to-back against a rested and hungry Los Angeles Kings team coming off consecutive losses.
L.A. should pile up the shots in this game and Fiala will no doubt get his fair share.
Prop bet #3: Connor Bedard Over 2.5 shots on goal
Connor Bedard is a phenomenal young talent who constantly threatens offensively despite an underwhelming supporting cast.
The Chicago Blackhawks are generating just 26 shots per game yet Bedard has averaged more than three while clearing his line at a 59% clip.
I expect him to enjoy success shooting the puck against the Vancouver Canucks. They have played at a faster pace while also conceding shots at a higher clip over the last 10 games. That bodes well for Bedard.
Perhaps more importantly, this is a homecoming game for Bedard. He was born and raised in Vancouver and should have plenty of family and friends in the building for his first NHL game in his hometown.
I’m generally not one to pay attention to narratives, but facing the Canucks clearly means something to Bedard, who recorded 11 shots on 17 attempts over two games against them during his rookie campaign.
Expect him to have a little extra pep in his step and pile up the shots in this one.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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