The reigning Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning head into Edmonton tonight on a two-game losing streak, while the Oilers are coming off of a big win against the Washington Capitals.
The Lightning got the best of the Oilers in their first meeting this season, winning by the score of 5-3, and they have won the last five meetings between these two. The Oilers don’t have a playoff spot secured and they are gearing up for a playoff push.
Can Edmonton secure a big home victory, or will the Lightning break their two-game slide? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Oilers.
Lightning vs Oilers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Edmonton Oilers opened up as home underdogs at +125, but are now down to +115. The total opened up at 6, but with the strength of both teams' offense, the line moved to 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lightning vs Oilers predictions
Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lightning vs Oilers game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Lightning vs Oilers betting preview
Key injuries
Lightning: Pat Maroon F (Questionable), Brent Seabrook D (Out).
Oilers: Tyson Barrie D (Questionable), Josh Archibald F (Questionable), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins F (Out), Mike Smith G (Questionable), Kyle Turris F (Out), Kris Russel D (Out), Jesse Puljujarvi F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Lightning vs Oilers head-to-head record since 2018-2019
Lightning: 4-0-0 SU, 19 goals for.
Oilers: 0-4-0 SU, 9 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Oilers.
Lightning vs Oilers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Edmonton Oilers are hoping to find a little more consistency as the regular season comes to a close. They are 2-2-1 in their last five games and the Lightning is 2-3-0 in theirs.
Both teams aren’t playing at their best right now, but they always find a way to turn up the dial this time of year. Edmonton relies heavily on its offense, which is completely understandable when you have two out of the top players in the league in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
McDavid is coming off of a very strong performance in their last game, tallying a goal and an assist to lead his team to a 4-3 overtime win. Tampa’s offensive ability is right up there with the Oilers, led by captain Steven Stamkos. Stamkos has been very impressive all season long and ranks 15th in the league in points with 27 goals and 36 assists on the season.
If there is one team that can keep up with the Oilers, it's definitely Tampa, but it will have its work cut out for it in its own end. The Lightning are playing their first game of what will be back-to-back, so they announced Brian Elliot as their starter which gives the Oilers the edge in goal.
I think there is incredible value on the Oilers as home dogs tonight and I don’t think Elliot will be able to stop this star-studded offense.
Prediction: Oilers ML (+140)
Over/Under analysis
The last time these two teams met was on February 23 in Tampa. They had a high-scoring affair, ultimately ending in a 5-3 win for the Bolts.
Mike Smith and Andrei Vasilevskiy were the starting goalies for that contest, but tonight we'll see each team's backup. The goalie matchup in this game doesn’t necessarily have a ton of excitement. Brian Elliott hasn’t appeared in many games for the Lightning this season, but in the ones he has, Eliott possesses a .907 save percentage and a 2.46 goals-against average.
Tampa does a great job at limiting its opponents and helping out its goalies, as it ranks sixth in the number of high-danger chances that it gives up per-60 minutes. With that being said, they will have their hands full tonight against the two-headed beast of McDavid and Draisaitl. Edmonton isn’t the best defensive team and Mikko Koskinen will need to put together another strong 60 minutes, but he hasn’t put up the best numbers this season. Koskinen is currently allowing 3.05 goals against and features a .904 save percentage.
The goaltending on both sides is weak and I expect these two offensive juggernauts to light the lamp more than six times. I’m going with the over.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-120)
Best bet
The fatigue factor might kick in for Tampa tonight as this will be its fourth road game in six days. Mix in the exhaust from traveling, along with playing a lot of hockey, and Edmonton's speed and stamina could be a huge advantage as it's playing on two days' rest.
I don’t feel confident enough in Brian Elliott, and the Lightning haven’t necessarily been playing their ideal brand of hockey over the past few games. Edmonton has been a solid team on home-ice and it got a huge win on Wednesday night, so it will come into this feeling good. It's very rare that you see the Oilers as home underdogs so I feel like I have to take advantage of that value.
This is a massive game for Edmonton, and every point matters for it at this point in the season. I think the Oilers will play with a ton of urgency and win this game outright.
Pick: Oilers ML (+140)
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