Lightning vs Predators Picks and Predictions: Tampa Bay Outworked in Cool Conditions

The Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning will play under the outdoor lights of Nissan Stadium in Nashville Saturday night in the NHL's annual Stadium Series, with 65,000 fans watching on. The forecast is looking dry after rain during the week and temperatures are expected in the low-40s for the evening puck drop.

Is it easier for a road team to walk into these massive productions and escape with a win as we saw in the Winter Classic? Can the home side build off their two-game win streak and pick up the victory in front of 65,000 fans as heavy underdogs?

Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Predators. 

Lightning vs Predators odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Lightning opened as -155 on the moneyline and quickly hit as low as -170 as of Friday afternoon. The total for this outdoor affair opened at 6.5. The Winter Classic outdoor game in January closed with a total of 6 and saw 10 total goals in the coldest outdoor conditions in the NHL’s history.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lightning vs Predators predictions

• Prediction: Predators ML (+150)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-120)
• Best bet: Predators ML (+150)

Predictions made on 2/25/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lightning vs Predators game info

• Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
• Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Lightning vs Predators betting preview

Key injuries

Lightning: Zach Bogosian D (Out).
Predators: Mark Borowiecki D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Predators head-to-head record since 2019-20

Lightning: 7-3 SU, 36 goals for.
Predators: 3-7 SU, 26 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in Predators’ last six games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Predators.

Lightning vs Predators picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The weather hasn’t been great this week in Nashville, with rain keeping the ice crew busy but everything should be fine for this season’s Stadium Series game at Nissan Stadium Saturday night come puck drop. Temperatures are expected in the low-40s with precipitation likely holding off for game time.

She's a beauty ???? #StadiumSeries pic.twitter.com/0HIsoYIZsm

— NHLonTNT (@NHL_On_TNT) February 25, 2022

The Predators enter this outdoor affair as +150 home dogs, which is the longest home underdogs Nashville has been all season. At home versus the Avalanche, the Predators closed at +130. In the Winter Classic, the Wild were slight -115 home favorites for comparison. Even with the Lightning being the better team and coming in with the better form, this -170 ML seems at least 20 points too long.

The Lightning have had the benefit of a light schedule of late, which is a big advantage considering all the hockey they’ve played over the past two-plus seasons, but they played anything but a solid game versus the Oilers on Wednesday. After a week of rest, the Lightning won 5-3 versus the Oilers and will enter Saturday’s battle having played just one game across the last 11 days. 

Andrei Vasilevskiy (unconfirmed) is a much better goalie on home ice with a 1.94 GAA that balloons to 2.74 on the road. Over his last four games away from Amalie Arena, the former Vezina winner has allowed 14 goals. Tampa Bay has one of the best road records in the league but allows 3.12 GAA. Tampa Bay's goalie and the Lightning have never played an outdoor game.

The Predators played outdoors just two seasons ago in the 2020 Winter Classic versus the Dallas Stars. They lost 4-2 in that meeting and Juuse Saros (unconfirmed) did not start in net for Nashville, as Pekka Rinne got the nod. Saros did, however, back up and has had a little more experience with the outdoor setting than his counterpart. 

The Preds are coming off back-to-back wins over the Panthers and Stars and it was Saros who helped get the two points Thursday versus Dallas in a 2-1 shootout victory. Saros was riding a rough patch heading into that game, so the 27-save performance is a massive boost of confidence for a goaltender who was in the Vezina conversation around Christmas. 

The recent wins for Nashville show the team’s ability to win close games or even shootouts like the 6-4 win in Florida. That was just the fourth home loss for the Panthers all season and this Nashville team comes into Saturday’s matchup riding high and full of confidence. 

Are the Lightning the better team? Yes, of course. Should they be -170 favorites in this spot? We don’t believe so. Nashville is coming in hot, while the Bolts are coming in literally cool with so much time off and zero experience in the outdoor environment. This price is just too good for the home side not to take and with 65,000 fans cheering them on, hopefully, the Preds don’t disappoint as the Titans did in the last game in this stadium.

Prediction: Predators ML (+150)

Over/Under analysis

There was plenty of talk heading into the Winter Classic about how the cold weather would affect the ice surface and give an edge to the Under. Well, that game hit Over 6.0 two minutes before the end of the second period in what was an up-and-down offensive showcase. The truth is, the technology and the work that the ice crews have done with these games are hard to bet against. They’ve learned so much from previous experiences that every new outdoor game seemingly has better conditions on the ice and on the bench. Just hitting the Under on an outdoor because of the environment is not advised.

However, in saying that, this is likely the first outdoor game that has seen a total of 6.5, but that total was short-lived as Pinnacle hit 6 roughly one hour after opening at 6.5. Six is the right number and thanks to the move, we can take a better look at this Over.

We were riding the Under 6.5 in Tampa’s last home game versus the Oilers because they play a much tighter game at home than on the road. That didn’t stop the Oilers from racking up nearly 4.00 expected goals and winning play at even strength. The time off certainly didn’t help this team defensively as Edmonton created a ton of scoring chances. 

On the road, the Lightning see an average of 6.84 goals per game compared to just 5.56 at home, which is why they are 16-11-1 O/U away from home ice this season.

The Predators come into the meeting 6-3 to the Over in their last nine while Saros is 11-5 O/U in his last 16 starts. He has a 2.81 GAA over those 16 games. 

The Predators penalty kill has also been a huge issue which is compounded by a team that takes the most penalties per game in hockey. The most-penalized team has given up nine power-play goals across their last six games and the freebies they’ve been giving out have correlated to the Over hitting. 

At 6.5 we’d likely pass, but we’re happy to hit the Over here.

Prediction: Over 6 (-120)

Best bet

As mentioned above, this +150 price is too long for the home side. Yes, it’s not a traditional home game, but there is likely some advantage for the Predators even if it’s just 10 points in the ML. 

The Predators have also played in a recent outdoor game while the Bolts haven’t done much playing at all over the last two weeks. Tampa Bay plays a more loose game away from Amalie Arena and the Predators are coming in with a ton of confidence after defeating the Stars and Panthers in consecutive games. 

Pick: Predators ML (+150)

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