Maple Leafs vs Bruins Picks and Predictions: Undervalued Buds Deliver in Boston

The Toronto Maple Leafs will play their third game in four days tonight as they travel to TD Garden to take on a Boston Bruins team that has hockey’s best point percentage since the All-Star break. With one point separating Tampa, Boston, and Toronto in the Atlantic, tonight’s outcome will have a big effect on the standings. 

Can the Leafs continue to play winning teams well despite playing losing teams poorly? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.

(Editor’s Note: On April 4th, sports betting in Ontario shifts from a grey market to a regulated market. Get all the information you need ahead of this change with our Ontario sports betting guide.)

Maple Leafs vs Bruins odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Bruins opened at -125 on the ML and have since steamed to -150 with an opening total of 6 hit 6.5 before lunch today. These two teams have not met since November when the Leafs won 5-2 as -125 home favorites with a total of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Bruins predictions

• Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (+130)
• Prediction: Under 6.5 (-115)
• Best bet: Coyle Over 0.5 points (+100)

Predictions made on 3/29/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Bruins game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: New England Sports Network, Sportsnet Ontario

Maple Leafs vs Bruins betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: Ondrej Kase F (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Jack Campbell G (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out).
Bruins: None.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Bruins head-to-head record since 2018-19

Maple Leafs: 6-9 SU, 40 goals for.  
Bruins: 9-6 SU, 51 goals for. 

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1-1 in the Bruins’ last seven games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.

Maple Leafs vs Bruins picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Leafs played a pair of solid games over the weekend but skated away with just two points. They launched 51 shots at Jake Allen on Saturday night but dropped a 4-2 decision to the Habs as -240 ML favorites but then took two from the East’s best the following night in a 5-2 win over the Panthers. If there is one thing we know about the Leafs, it’s that they're constantly playing up or down to their competition which isn’t a bad thing for them tonight as +130 road dogs.

The Bruins are gaining steam on the ML as they opened at -125 and have moved 25 points to -150. Boston is the hottest team in the league right now with a 15-3-2 mark over its last 20 games. The Bruins are getting scoring up and down the lineup and could possibly face Petr Mrazek, but has the steam gone too far?

The Leafs are an easy team to fade, as they are 5-8 SU as favorites of -200 or more, but Sheldon Keefe’s squad has played well against solid competition, especially of late. Since February 1, the Leafs are 7-2 SU as -140 favorites or shorter and winning their only game as an underdog in that stretch. Conversely, the Bruins are just 5-8 SU as -140 favorites or shorter over the last two-plus months. This is looking like a classic Leafs game where nobody is giving them much of a chance — including the market — yet they could pull it off and we’ll be saying they’re one of the best teams in the East tomorrow morning.

Beating Jeremy Swayman will be one of the biggest factors with the Leafs tonight. The young goaltender has a 1.84 GAA since Tuukka Rask retired. He’s an incredible 11-1 SU in his last 12 starts but faced just four playoff teams in that stretch. He’s been great, but this Toronto offense can beat him. 

Auston Mattews and Mitch Marner have a combined 33 points over their last 12 games, John Tavares is waking up with a pair of goals in his last outing, the team has the league’s No. 1 power play, and now face the fourth-most penalized team in Boston. In the previous meeting, Matthews tallied a pair of power-play markers in a 5-2 Toronto win at home.

The Leafs have also been much better defensively which coincides with the addition of Mark Giordano. Adding the former Norris Trophy winner has balanced out these Toronto D-pairings and has bailed out a team that was struggling to get consistency in net — which brings us to the game’s biggest factor: Petr Mrazek.

Mrazek held the Panthers to two goals on 36 shots Sunday and left the ice to a standing ovation. The veteran goaltender has responded well after clearing waivers and has ripped off back-to-back wins versus great offenses in New Jersey and Florida. Mrazek has his confidence back and is giving this team the thing they were missing two weeks ago, which was saves. 

As the Leafs showed in their win versus Florida, they can shut down a team that has a ton of scoring depth. The Leafs are one of the best teams in hockey (if they can get saves) and have only been underdogs three times all season. Boston has been one of the most overvalued teams on the ML all season as they are -$1,506 on ML$ with $100 bets. Toronto is too good of a team to be paying +130 which we feel is 10 to 15 points too long.

Prediction: Maple Leafs moneyline (+130)

Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 6, -120 to the Over and hit 6.5 around 11 a.m. ET. We liked the Over at 6 but at 6.5, it’s likely a pass for us.

Swayman has been the best goalie in hockey over the last six weeks and could certainly steal the show tonight versus a Leafs team that will be playing its third game in four nights with two of those on the road. Stopping Matthews and the first line might be impossible, but the Bruins and their 2.26 GAA since Valentine’s Day will prove a big test.

Mrazek is a giant question mark for this total and a big reason we leaned on the Over 6. He has played great in two straight games but is still 8-4-1 O/U in his last 13 starts with a 3.41 GAA. The combination of Mrazek’s play and the Leafs’ offense has been a great edge for Overs, but 6.5 still is tough to swallow when the 6 was out there earlier.

The Bruins have been stacking wins of late and getting secondary scoring but they rank outside the Top 12 in goals per game this month at 3.46 and are likely the reason this total opened at 6. 

Not having Patrice Bergeron in the lineup for a handful of games hurt the offense, but this is still a Bruins team that is being led offensively by the third line consisting of Charlie Coyle and Craig Smith, who have a combined 24 points over the last 12 games and are tied for second in team scoring over that stretch. 

Both clubs also have a power play and penalty kill that rank in the Top 10 in each. We understand why the market pushed this total to 6.5 but we can’t see the Over 6.5 getting much confidence in the market.

Prediction: Under 6.5 (-115)

Best bet

The third line of the Bruins has been one of the best prop-betting secrets over the last couple of weeks as Craig Smith (+300 to score) has nine goals over his last 11 games while his centerman, Charlie Coyle, has 11 points in that same stretch. 

This line got the most 5-on-5 ice time in the Bruins’ previous game while Coyle centers the PP2 as well. This line could match up well against a Toronto third line that will feature the defensiveness of William Nylander. At even money for a point on Coyle, sign us up. 

Pick: Charlie Coyle Over 0.5 points (+100)

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