We’ve got 14 games on the NHL betting slate today, including an all-Canadian matchup between the Calgary Flames and the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Scotiabank Saddledome.
The Buds' power play is heating up, and with Calgary boasting one of the worst penalty kills in the league, it’s a market I’m targeting with my Maple Leafs vs. Flames predictions and NHL picks for Tuesday, February 4.
Maple Leafs vs Flames prediction
My Leafs pick
Matthew Knies Over 0.5 power-play points (+525 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs have struggled on the power play this season, but it’s starting to come around over the past few weeks and could be the difference tonight against the Calgary Flames.
Toronto ranks 13th in the NHL this season with just a 22.5% success rate on the man advantage. However, the Buds have the top-ranked PP since January 16 with six goals on 14 opportunities, operating at a league-best 42.1% conversion rate.
Considering the Flames have one of the league's worst penalty kills, the Leafs' power-play prop market is the spot to target tonight.
Calgary ranks 28th with a lowly 72% kill rate and has allowed three power-play goals total over its last three home games for a success rate of just 57%.
Mitch Marner is typically the player I like to target, but his status tonight is uncertain, so I’ll be going for value with sophomore forward Matthew Knies at +525 to record a point on the power play.
Knies is the lone member on the top unit with a value of more than +270. This is tremendous value considering he scored a PPG against Edmonton in the last game and has scored twice on the man advantage in his last three games. In total, he has three points on the power play in his last eight games.
The other reason I like Knies’ value is because of how and where he scores. Knies is a fixture at the net front and generates a ton of high-danger chances. That bodes well against a Flames penalty kill that has been scored on 19 times in that situation, the third-most allowed across the NHL on the PK.
As a team, the Leafs rank in the Top 5 for generating high-danger chances on the man advantage, so it should allow for Knies to get chances and convert on the power play tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Flames same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Knies anytime goal
Auston Matthews 4+ shots on goal
Nazem Kadri 2+ shots on goal
For the first leg of the SGP, we’ll mirror our best bet with an anytime goal from Knies. Whether it’s on the power play or at 5-on-5, Knies has been one of the most consistent contributors for Toronto with eight goals in 12 games since the calendar flipped to 2025.
Next up, let’s hit up the shots market and bet on Auston Matthews to hit the net 4+ times tonight. Matthews leads the Leafs with shots on goal since returning from his injury. He’s also averaging 5.2 shots per game in his last 10 meetings against Calgary.
For the final leg of our SGP, let’s continue with the shots market and take Nazem Kadri to record 2+. The former Maple Leafs forward has gone Over this total in five of the eight career meetings he’s had against Toronto. The Flames' top-line center has also hit this total in each of his last two games and three of his last four outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Flames odds
Maple Leafs vs Flames live odds
Maple Leafs vs Flames opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+165) | Calgary +1.5 (-200)
- Moneyline: Toronto -150 | Calgary +125
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under 5.5 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Flames trend
The underdog is 4-0 on the puck line in the last four meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Flames.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Flames
| Location | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-4-2025 |
| Puck drop | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN4 |
Maple Leafs vs Flames latest injuries
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