We have an Eastern Conference tilt with the Metropolitan Division’s Carolina Hurricanes hosting the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs. Last season, Toronto won two of the three meetings between these two clubs.
Will the Buds take care of business once again, or can Carolina grab a victory as at the NHL odds home favorite? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes on Sunday, November 6.
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes best odds
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes picks and predictions
There have been seven or more total goals scored in three of Toronto’s last five games and in four of Carolina’s last five. These trends should continue on Sunday, especially with the Maple Leafs’ current goaltending situation.
Starting goaltender Ilya Samsonov left last night’s game against the Bruins with a knee injury, which means that the Leafs only have one goaltender left on the current roster: Erik Kallgren. Through three starts this season, Kallgren is 0-1-2 with a .875 SV% and 3.63 GAA.
If anything were to happen to Kallgren during this contest, then Toronto would likely be forced to go with an EBUG. While that obviously is unlikely to happen, it is a fun thing to consider (and would also almost certainly guarantee the Over).
Across the ice, goaltender Frederik Andersen is projected to start between the pipes for Carolina. Although he is typically one of the better goaltenders in the league and he will definitely figure things out at some point, it is worth noting that Andersen has struggled in the crease to begin the season.
Through seven starts, he possesses a .894 SV% and 2.66 GAA. While I am certain he will figure things out, the Maple Leafs are a tough team to do that against.
Over his last four starts against Toronto, Andersen is 1-1-2 with a troubling .865 SV% and 3.49 GAA. Meanwhile, these are two of the most talented offenses in the league.
At 5v5, both teams rank inside the Top 10 in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). With the amount of firepower in this game and the current form of each goaltender, seven goals should not be too difficult to come by.
My best bet: Over 6,5 (-122 at Sports Interaction)
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Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes moneyline analysis
I would lean towards the Hurricanes to win this game, but I have them between –125 to –130 favorites and they are currently laying around –150 on the moneyline. That is too much juice for my liking, especially considering Andersen’s recent form and his track record against the Leafs.
The reason for this large price is certainly due to the goaltending situation in Toronto, which is a valid reason to not like them in this game. However, this game likely comes down to offensive production and these teams are virtually neck-and-neck in that department.
Carolina should have the edge defensively, but blueliners can only do so much against the likes of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. If the price comes down on the Canes for any reason, then they could be worth a play at a shorter number.
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes Over/Under analysis
The only reservation to make in taking the Over is that goaltender Frederik Andersen will positively regress at some point. His surface-level stats do not align with his metrics as he ranks ninth among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.
There is no questioning Andersen’s typical brilliance between the pipes, and a slow start to the season should not be concerning to Carolina fans. However, this positive regression will likely come down the road and not on Sunday against the high-powered Toronto offense.
If Andersen had performed better against the Leafs previously, then maybe the pause for concern would be greater. That being said, the Maple Leafs have had no problem against Andersen even when he was in good form, so Sunday should be no different.
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes betting trend to know
There have been seven or more total goals scored in four of Carolina’s last five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes.
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes game info
| Location: | PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC |
| Sunday, November 6 , 2022 | |
| Puck drop: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ESPN |
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes key injuries
