We have three games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an Original Six clash between the New York Rangers and the Toronto Maple Leafs at Madison Square Garden.
New York has struggled defensively this season, my Maple Leafs vs. Rangers predictions focus in on Auston Matthews and his ability to get pucks on net.
Find out why with my free NHL picks for this February 28 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers prediction
My Leafs pick
Auston Matthews Over 3.5 shots (-118 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs have won three straight games since the 4 Nations break, with an offensive eruption netting 5+ goals in each victory. Meanwhile, the New York Rangers have won two of their three games, all against non-playoff teams, I might add, but with extremely leaky defensive zone coverage.
The Blue Shirts have allowed a league-high 36.6 shots per game in the three contests since returning from their two-week absence. Additionally, New York will be without its top defenseman, Adam Fox, who was placed on the injured reserve list after sustaining an injury in their last game.
New York has struggled defensively all season. According to Natural Stat Trick, the team ranks 30th in high-danger chances allowed and 29th in shots against at 5-on-5.
Generating offense at 5-on-5 is an area where Toronto has excelled this year, being in the top half of league teams in these categories. Hence, I'm targeting a Maple Leafs shot prop total as my best bet.
Enter Auston Matthews, the Maple Leafs' top-scoring threat.
His shot prop total is set at 3.5 tonight. It's a number he has cleared in back-to-back games and recorded 4+ shots in eight of his last 11 games, averaging 4.3 per game in that stretch. He also exceeded that total with nine shots in the one previous meeting between these two squads earlier this year.
Not only is Matthews a threat as a high-volume shooter, but it's the quality of looks that makes him the most dangerous. He leads the NHL in scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and ranks third in individual high-danger chances; two defensive categories that the Blueshirts struggle with, ranking 28th and 30th in those metrics, respectively.
With the Rangers giving up quality shots in high quantities, it should benefit Auston Matthews, who should be well-rested after a three-day layoff.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthews 4+ shots
Matthews anytime goal
Reilly 2+ shots
For the first leg of the SGP, we'll mirror the best bet and take Auston Matthews to record 4+ shots on goal. He's hit this total in three straight meetings against the Rags and in eight of his last 11 overall.
Next up in the SGP, we'll continue with the Matthews theme and take him to score an anytime goal. The Rangers are susceptible to giving up high-quality chances, and Matthews can generate and bury the biscuit better than anyone on the planet. He's been in a bit of a slump lately, but he's scored five goals in his last four games against the Rangers, all of which were scored on Igor Shesterkin as well.
We'll stick with the shot prop market for the final leg of our SGP and take Morgan Rielly to register 2+ shots on goal. He's cashed this bet in back-to-back games and in six of the seven games he's played this month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Rangers odds
Maple Leafs vs Rangers live odds
Maple Leafs vs Rangers opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+195) | New York +1.5 (-230)
- Moneyline: Toronto -120 | New York 107
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Rangers trend
The Under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Rangers.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Rangers
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Friday, 2-28-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNO |
Maple Leafs vs Rangers latest injuries
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