The Toronto Maple Leafs snapped their three-game losing streak Thursday versus the Wild as they played a defensive game that resembled their early-season form in the 3-1 win. Now they’ll look to keep things moving on the road versus the Detroit Red Wings, who they've already beaten twice this year, scoring 12 goals in the two victories.
Are the Leafs making a mistake by not going back to Petr Mrazek, who picked up the win over the Wild? Do the Red Wings deserve to be +170 road dogs after closing at +230 in the previous meeting at home? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings on Saturday, February 26.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs opened as -215 road favorites but the market has adjusted towards the dogs, as the Leafs currently sit at -190 on the ML with a total that's bouncing between 6 and 6.5. These two teams met in Detroit in late January with Toronto winning 7-4 as -260 favorites and a total of 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-129)
- Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs TT Over 3.5 (-115)
Predictions made on 2/26/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings game info
• Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
• Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SN, CBC, Bally Sports Detroit
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), John Tavares F (Probable), Travis Dermott D (Probable), Pierre Engvall F (Probable), Ilya Mikheyev F (Probable).
Red Wings: Jakub Vrana F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings head-to-head record since 2018-19
Maple Leafs: 7-2 SU, 43 goals for.
Red Wings: 2-7 SU, 26 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Red Wings are 1-8 SU in their last nine games as a home underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Leafs quieted the critics Thursday night with a defensive 3-1 win versus the offensive Minnesota Wild. The performance was in stark contrast to their recent play but looked similar to the early-season results that had them as one of the best Under teams in hockey.
The Leafs are switching things up in net, however, as Jack Campbell will get the start after Petr Mrazek got the victory versus the Wild. The switch is likely warranted, as Mrazek has seen the Wings, his former team, twice this season and has been tagged for eight total goals. Campbell has certainly struggled of late, but the tender has played well versus sub-.500 opponents.
The ML price certainly stands out here, as well, as the Leafs were -265 favorites in Detroit back in January and are now -190 heading into tonight. The difference might be related to a non-COVID illness going around the Leafs’ locker room. The players missed practice on Friday, but so far there is no news about all the affected players missing time. Nick Robertson will be making his season debut and will give Pierre Engvall or Ilya Mikheyev a breather, so the impact of the bug should be minimal. Mikheyev actually left the Minnesota game because of the illness so perhaps the Leafs are just being precautious with John Tavares and Travis Dermott.
Keefe says a bug is running through the team which accounted for all the absent players today. #Leafs.
— David Alter (@dalter) February 25, 2022
Robertson has dealt with injuries this season but is a big part of the team’s future (or trade bait). His injection into the lineup is a plus for the Leafs, as Robertson is a highly-skilled winger who can create and finish. He had eight points in nine AHL games before the call-up.
The Red Wings will have to slow down Auston Matthews if they want to secure two points, and not many teams have been able to slow down 34. He leads the league in goals with 36 and has 29 tucks over his last 31 games. He absolutely dominated the Wild and finished with two goals (another game-winner) and won 17 of his 19 faceoffs. He’s starting to make some noise in the Hart Trophy odds and faces a Detroit team that is allowing 3.72 goals per game since December 1, which is the fourth-worst mark in hockey.
The Wings might have a bright future with their young core and Steve Yzerman pulling the strings, but this is a team that sits 24th in expected goal differential at even strength, is in the Bottom 5 in Corsi% and Fenwick%, and has a -0.75 goal differential per game over its last 20 contests. With roughly 30 games left on the schedule, Detroit has just a 0.4% chance to make the playoffs, per Money Puck.
The Wings have had no answer for the Leafs’ offense through two meetings this season and have conceded 12 goals already. 10 of those tallies came at even strength and the Leafs lit up both Detroit goalies, which makes handicapping this game easier without Detroit's starter confirmed.
The Wings have played some elite teams of late, which helps their cause, but they’ve also given up five power-play goals over their last four and are possibly 60 points short on the moneyline.
The Leafs closed at -265 in Columbus this week, which was also the second game of a back-to-back. The bug may be driving this line too much, and Robertson coming up lessens the blow.
Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-129)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs’ defensive win gave the club just its fifth Under in its last 20 games. The Leafs have struggled to get solid goaltending and the Overs have been rolling in because of it. Will we see that same defensive play from the Buds as we saw versus Minnesota tonight with Campbell in net?
Campbell has been driving the struggle bus for nearly two months now. He’s 10-1 to the Over across his last 11 starts with a 3.60 GAA. Although we are on the positive side that Campbell will work this rough patch out, trusting Campbell with an Under is not in our cards.
The loss of Jake Muzzin is also an issue on the backend, as Ilya Lyubushkin, is not a top-four defenseman but is being played as one because of Muzzin’s absence. Without Muzzin in the lineup, the Over is hitting at 70% across 10 games.
The Leafs’ offense is the aspect that is pushing the needle for us more than anything. They beat Thomas Greiss for five goals in the first meeting and then beat Alex Nedeljkovic for five (plus two empty-net goals) in the most recent meeting. The Leafs’ top line is dominating, and the addition of Robertson will add some talent to the bottom-six, or even on the second line if he goes there.
The Wings are 5-1 to the Over across their last six games and rank in the Bottom 5 in goals against and expected goals against at 5-on-5. Add in a penalty kill that has been getting beat of late and we could easily see the Leafs put up five goals again.
With this total bouncing around between 6 and 6.5, it gives us a great opportunity to hit the Over 6 even at -125.
Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
Best bet
We've seen the Buds turn into a defensive team and resemble that same squad from Wednesday night’s 3-1 win. The full total scares us slightly, as the Leafs may want to emulate that game plan, especially since it helped them out of a three-game losing streak.
That shouldn’t stop the Buds from getting plenty of scoring opportunities, though. Toronto has been held to two or fewer goals just five times across its last 32 games and now faces the Wings, who rank in the Bottom 5 in goals allowed per game and penalty killing. Stopping Matthews right now is impossible.
Pick: Maple Leafs TT Over 3.5 (-115)
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