The Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs meet Monday night for the first of four regular-season meetings between these Original Six clubs.
The Maple Leafs have won each of the past three games, outscoring the opposition by a 10-5 margin, while cashing the Under in three of the past four outings.
The Red Wings are riding a season-high four-game win streak, lighting the lamp at least three times during each of those victories.
Which of these red-hot teams will be able to keep up their winning ways? I discuss in my NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings below.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings best odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings picks and predictions
The Red Wings have outscored the opposition 20-8 during its season-long four-game win streak, and goaltender Ville Husso has been a big part of the success.
He's 4-0-0 with a 1.96 goals against average and a .922 save percentage across his four starts during the win streak while going 6-1-0 with a 2.38 GAA and .914 SV% with two shutouts in nine starts in the month of November.
The Maple Leafs will certainly test the winning ways of Husso, however, as they haven’t lost in regulation in eight straight games dating back to November 11 at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Leafs are 6-0-2 during the impressive span.
Matt Murray was injured in the regular-season opener and missed a month due to a lower-body injury, but he is now healthy and 4-1-1 with a 2.51 GAA and .921 SV% in six starts this season. He is making the gamble of general manager Kyle Dubas start to look like a smart roll of the dice.
The Maple Leafs have won 20 of the past 26 in this series and four straight meetings in Motown, with the favorite going 22-5 in the past 27 in the series. All signs point to another Maple Leafs victory in this battle of the originals.
My best bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-167 at SportsInteraction)
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs have won by exactly three goals in three of their past five victories, but playing the puck line with Toronto as the favorite is a little on the risky side. It has won outright in the past four as an underdog, but Toronto is 2-6 in the past eight as a favorite on the puck line.
The Red Wings have been on first as an underdog, going 5-1 against the puck line, including four straight-up victories dating back to November 3. And overall on the season, Detroit is 8-4 on the puck line as a ‘dog.
Murray has returned from injury with a vengeance, going 4-0-1 in his five starts dating back to November 15, allowing three or fewer goals in each of the outings.
On the flip side, the Toronto offense was a bit uneven to start but has picked up the pace significantly. It has scored four goals in back-to-back games, and it has scored two or more goals in 16 consecutive outings.
The Leafs were good for four 5-on-5 goals last time against Pittsburgh, which is also what they did in the previous outing at Minnesota on Friday. If Toronto can get its power play cooking, it will really be a force to be reckoned with.
Toronto has failed to convert on its past nine power-play opportunities since John Tavares last lit the lamp on the man advantage in the 3-2 loss to the Islanders on November 21.
Detroit has posted a 23.3% mark on the man advantage this season, which ranks No. 12 in the NHL. It has had no issues on the power play lately, racking up two goals on the man advantage last time out in a 4-3 win over the Arizona Coyotes at home on Friday.
In fact, the Red Wings have scored power-play goals in three consecutive games, with four total and two of them off the stick of Filip Hronek in the past two games.
Hronek has been particularly hot, scoring in four straight outings, with five total goals. Hronek is also working on a six-game point streak, posting six goals and 10 points. He also has three or more shots on goal in seven of his previous nine.
As such, Hronek at even money (+100 at BetMGM) for Over 0.5 points seems like a steal. Hronek is worth a roll of the dice for Over 0.5 power-play points (+450 at BetMGM), too, as he has two goals and five points on the man advantage in the past six outings.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Over/Under analysis
The Under has been the dominant trend for the Leafs lately, cashing at a 16-7-1 clip in the past 24 games overall dating back to last season. More important, the Under is 11-2 in the past 13 games against teams with a winning record, for which the Red Wings certainly qualify.
On the flip side, the Red Wings have hit the Under in five of the past seven games at Little Caesars Arena, while hitting at a 3-1-2 clip in the past six against Atlantic Division foes.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs have won 20 of the past 26 meetings against the Red Wings, and the favorite has cashed in 22 of the previous 27 battles between these Original Six rivals. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Red Wings.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings game info
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Monday, November 28, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Detroit |
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings key injuries
