We’ve got 15 games on the betting slate tonight, including an Atlantic Division clash between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs at Little Caesars Arena.
Detroit’s penalty kill has been horrendous this season, and it’s a market I’m looking to exploit tonight in my Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings predictions.
Find out more in my free NHL picks for this December 14 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings prediction
My Leafs pick
Mitch Marner Over 0.5 power play points (+175 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings stoke the flame on that old Original Six rivalry tonight when the Buds travel out to the Motor City.
The Wings are in a tough spot this season with an 11-14-4 record, having lost six of their last seven games. A big reason for the team’s struggle to find wins is their poor penalty kill. Detroit’s PK ranks 31st in the NHL with a lowly 67.9% kill rate.
Thus, I want to attack the Leafs' power play prop market tonight, and no one has been more prominent on Toronto’s PP than Mitch Marner. Although the Leafs' success rate on the man advantage has been low this season (18.9%), it’s not for a lack of chances.
The Maple Leafs power play generates the second most scoring chances (70.7) and high-danger chances (33.67) in the league per 60 minutes of PP time, per Natural Stat Trick.
Considering the Wings’ projected starter tonight, Ville Husso, owns one of the league's worst save percentages (.870) and high-danger stop rates (.714), that quality shot generation for Toronto should be rewarded to get the power play back on track against one of the NHL’s worst penalty kills.
Toronto has just 17 power-play goals this year, with Marner factoring in on all but two of them — that’s an 88% point share. At +175, I think the value is great, and the matchup is even better for the Buds to break through with an extra attacker.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
Mitch Marner 2+ shots
William Nylander 3+ shots
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer
Marner has hit this mark six times in his last nine outings and is averaging 2.5 shots per game.
I’ll go with another shot prop for the second leg and roll with William Nylander to register 3+ shots tonight. The 28-year-old winger leads the team in shots this season, averaging 3.64 shots per game.
The Wings also give up many shots on net, ranking 28th in shots allowed with an average of 31.1 per game. So, there should be plenty of opportunity for a few Leafs to pad their shot totals tonight.
Matthews has 17 goals in 24 career games against Detroit. Additionally, he’s been heating up over the past few games and has generated a lot of quality looks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings live odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+145) | Detroit +1.5 (-175)
- Moneyline: Toronto -175 | Detroit +145
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) | Under 6 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings trend
The Under has combined to go 22-34-2 this season for the Leafs and Wings and has also gone Under the number in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs specifically. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Red Wings
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-14-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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