We’ve got 15 games on the NHL betting slate today, including an Atlantic Division showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
With injuries to Tampa’s back end, their defensive zone coverage has slipped the past few games, leading to a high volume of shots against them. Thus, my Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions are targeting William Nylander's lowly shots on goal total of 2.5.
Find out why I’m targeting this prop in my free NHL picks for this January 20 Leafs vs. Lightning matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction
My Leafs pick
William Nylander Over 2.5 shots on goal (-175 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs have won back-to-back games after their three-game skid. One of the biggest differences over the past couple of games has been their ability to get shots off in high volume.
During the three-game skid, Toronto averaged 27 shots on net. They’ve put up 41 and 34 shots, respectively, in the two wins since, which has been primarily led by the re-emergence of William Nylander as a top offensive threat.
Nylander scored in both wins and hurled 11 total shots on the net. This comes on the heels of a rough patch that saw him score just once in 11 games, averaging 2.2 shots in that stretch. Willy has his swagger back.
Despite that, bookmakers haven't fully bought in quite yet, as his shot prop total is still only set to 2.5.
On the season, Nylander leads all Leafs with 157 shots on goal, averaging 3.34 per game. He’s been a consistent volume shooter for years, averaging 3.48 shots per contest over the past four seasons.
Additionally, the John Tavares injury helps with Nylander's shot totals. Nylander’s line gets more favorable offensive zone starts when Max Domi, a pass-first player, is his pivot, leading to more shot opportunities for the Leafs’ top shooter.
Moreover, this matchup has fared well for Nylander over the years.
Nylander has cleared the 2.5 shot total in 10 straight games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, including four and five-shot outings against them in the two prior meetings earlier this season.
Plus, the Lightning are missing two top-four defensemen, Erik Cernak and JJ Moser. These injuries have started to take a toll on the Lightning’s ability to cover in their zone. They’ve allowed an average of 33 shots against over their last four contests, including giving up 40 shots to Detroit in their last game.
That is the best recipe for success to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy — throw everything at him and hope for a bounce or two. I fully expect Nylander and the Leafs to execute this game plan tonight to give Willy a great chance to log three or more shots tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
William Nylander 3+ shots on goal
William Nylander anytime goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
In addition to piling on the shot, we’ll stick with the Nylander market and take him to score an anytime goal on one of those 3+ shots. He’s scored in back-to-back games and has three goals in the two meetings against Tampa this year.
For the final leg of our SGP, let’s continue to pound the shot props against a battered Bolts blue line and take Auston Matthews to record 3+ shots himself. Matthews has torched the Bolts over the years. He’s got nine snipes over the last 10 meetings, averaging 5.4 shots per game. He should be good for at least three tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning live odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+185) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-225)
- Moneyline: Toronto -130 | Tampa Bay +110
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Lightning trend
The Over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Lightning
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 1-20-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN, Prime Video (Canada), TVAS |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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