After decisively topping the Stars, the Colorado Avalanche are at home again today against the Minnesota Wild as they look to build on that performance with another victory against a top contender in the Central Division.
My Wild vs. Avalanche predictions see the home team taking advantage of a bruised and battered blueline, with superstar Nathan MacKinnon leading the charge.
Let’s break things down further with my Monday, January 20 NHL picks for this 3 p.m. ET clash.
Wild vs Avalanche prediction
My best bet
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal (-128 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon is one of the best volume shooters in the sport. He does his best work at home, where his shot rates are noticeably higher than they are on the road.
MacKinnon has averaged 4.0 shots per game on 7.6 attempts when playing in Colorado this season. That’s a sizable gap from his average of 3.5 shots on 6.5 road attempts.
More importantly, the matchup is excellent. The Minnesota Wild are very good defensively when in full health. Unfortunately for them, they are nowhere close to that right now.
Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Kirill Kaprizov are all sidelined. Brodin and Spurgeon are extremely sound minute-munchers while Kaprizov was playing at a Hart Trophy level before his injury.
The Wild are spending a lot more time on their heels without those key players. In fact, only the 32nd-ranked Chicago Blackhawks have allowed more shots per game over the last 10.
Brock Faber returned for the Wild last time out but they still conceded six goals and nearly 40 shots to a Nashville Predators team that has struggled offensively all season long. It’s clear one player — no matter how good — can’t make up for so many key absentees.
MacKinnon is the most likely Avalanche player to take advantage of a Wild defense that is bleeding shots.
Not only is he the best shot-generator on the team, but the Wild have allowed the second-most shots to centers in the NHL over the past few weeks.
MacKinnon also has a ridiculously good track record against his Central Division rival, recording at least four shots in nine of the last 11 meetings, generating 5.5 on average.
Look for him to put forth another big shooting performance against the bruised and battered Wild.
Wild vs Avalanche same-game parlay (SGP)
Nathan MacKinnon 4+ shots on goal
Nathan MacKinnon 1+ assists
Ross Colton 1+ points
MacKinnon recorded at least one assist in 70% of his games last season. He’s picked up where he left off this year, setting up a goal or more at a 70% clip.
His numbers are even better on home ice, where MacKinnon has assists in 75% of his games and eight of the last nine, totaling a whopping 13 assists in that span.
MacKinnon has an assist in nine of his last 11 against the Wild. He has a strong chance of getting another against a banged-up squad that is bleeding shots and chances on a nightly basis.
Filip Gustavsson has been great this season but even he has faltered behind this struggling defense, conceding at least four goals in four straight appearances.
Ross Colton was recently moved up to the top line alongside MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. That trio has been great in their time together this season, controlling 64% of the expected goals and generating 74 scoring chances in just over 100 minutes of 5-on-5 play.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Wild vs Avalanche odds
Wild vs Avalanche live odds
Wild vs Avalanche opening odds
- Puck line: Minnesota +1.5 (-135) | Colorado -1.5 (+115)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +185 | Colorado -225
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) | Under 6 (-110)
Wild vs Avalanche trend
Nathan MacKinnon has assists in five straight games against Minnesota. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Avalanche.
How to watch Wild vs Avalanche
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 1-20-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSNNO, ALT |
Wild vs Avalanche latest injuries
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