It’s going to be a wild finish in the Western Conference playoff race, and that raises the stakes for tonight’s clash between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets.
There are injury question marks for both teams here, but my Timberwolves vs Rockets predictions focus on a big-man battle that could swing this contest.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Friday, February 21.
Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Naz Reid Over 26.5 points + rebounds (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The All-Star break came at the right time for the Minnesota Timberwolves, with a lengthy injury list and ground to make up in the standings. Chris Finch still won’t have a full-strength rotation available tonight against the Houston Rockets, but that opens the door for the supporting cast to shine.
Naz Reid has been one of those beneficiaries lately, stepping into the starting line-up with Julius Randle sidelined, and I love the Over on his points + rebounds combo prop here.
With his playing time spiking to the tune of at least 35 minutes in six of his last seven contests, Reid has responded with some monster stat lines, including 27 points and 14 boards against the Oklahoma City Thunder last week. He’s passed this 26.5 O/U line in five of his last seven outings, and he’s averaging 19.6 ppg so far in February.
I see that form carrying over to tonight’s matchup, and his chances of double-digit rebounds would climb further if Rudy Gobert (questionable) sits out. The Timberwolves dominated the glass in the teams’ last meeting, and Reid’s ability to stretch the floor will force Alperen Sengun into some tough decisions.
Houston can count on a seemingly endless supply of feisty wing defenders, but they’re all giving up a few inches to Reid, whether he’s setting up in the post or spotting up on the perimeter.
The break could also help Reid’s 3-point shooting. His numbers have predictably dropped off from beyond the arc after a sizzling 58% mark in January, but I expect some bounce-back performances after making just five of his 22 3-point attempts across his last three games.
Assuming Anthony Edwards suits up, Reid could slot in as Minnesota’s No. 2 scoring option tonight, and that kind of volume makes this combo prop a high-value play.
Timberwolves vs Rockets same-game parlay
Naz Reid Over 26.5 points + rebounds
Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 rebounds
Rockets moneyline
Make no mistake, Sengun will have his say in this matchup too, and I’m grabbing the Over on 9.5 rebounds for the first-time All-Star. The Turkish center pulled down 10 rebounds against the T-Wolves earlier this month, and he’s ended up with double-digit boards in five of his past seven outings.
Though Jabari Smith Jr. is set to return from a fractured hand tonight, I see Sengun doing most of the dirty work in the paint, and he ranks in the Top 10 for offensive rebounds with 3.3 per game.
I’m also taking the Houston moneyline, despite the hosts’ 2-8 ATS mark in their last 10 contests. The Rockets are 17-9 at Toyota Center this season, and they enter as the healthier and deeper team, which could be meaningful in the fourth quarter.
It rarely feels good to bet against Edwards (questionable), but I’m wary of the T-Wolves’ injury list and whether they can withstand a young, athletic team like Houston.
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Timberwolves vs Rockets odds
Timberwolves vs Rockets live odds
Timberwolves vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota XX | Houston XX
- Moneyline: Minnesota XX | Houston XX
- Over/Under: Over XXX | Under XXX
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Timberwolves have won eight of the past 10 meetings between these teams, covering the spread in seven of those contests.
- Minnesota is just 24-31-1 ATS this year, and Houston holds a superior overall record at 34-21.
- These teams have served up an Over in their last four head-to-head meetings.
- The Over is 42-30 in the Rockets’ past 72 outings, but the Under is 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Timberwolves vs Rockets trend
Minnesota has cashed the 1H moneyline in 14 of its last 18 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Rockets.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Friday, 2-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN, FanDuel Sports Network-NO, SCHN |
Timberwolves vs Rockets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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