We’ve got seven games on the betting slate tonight, including the battle of the QEW between the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs at KeyBank Arena.
Buffalo's penalty kill has been atrocious amidst its 11-game losing streak, and my Maple Leafs vs. Sabres predictions expect Mitch Marner to strike on the man advantage.
Find out more in my free NHL picks for December 20
Maple Leafs vs Sabres prediction
My Leafs pick
Mitch Marner Over 0.5 power play points (+165 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Buffalo Sabres are fresh off a 6-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens, in which they gave up three power-play goals. This is why I want to focus on the PP market tonight.
The Sabres' penalty kill is 77.4% on the season — 22nd in the NHL — but it’s gotten gruesome for the PK units in the last four games, as Buffalo has allowed seven goals on the man advantage in that stretch.
Buffalo is also the second most penalized team, so that should give the Toronto Maple Leafs multiple opportunities to draw some calls and get to work against a PK operating at just 58% over its last four outings.
The Leafs' power play hasn’t popped yet, but the quantity and quality of chances are in the top echelon in the NHL. The Buds' PP ranks second in the league in scoring chances and high-danger chances. Eventually, these chances are going to start converting into goals.
Toronto has scored on the power play 19 times this season, and the player with the most PPP is Mitch Marner, who has been a part of 16 of them.
The matchup is solid, too. As mentioned, the Leafs generate the second-most high-danger chances in the NHL, which should bode well against a team ranked 31st in high-danger save percentage (.754%).
Maple Leafs vs Sabres same-game parlay (SGP)
Auston Matthews 3+ shots
Bobby McMann 2+ shots
Leafs -1.5
I like Auston Matthews to get at least three shots on goal tonight. Whether it’s at 5-on-5 or the power play, Matthews will be ready to shoot early and often against a goalie lacking confidence. AM34 has gone Over this number in five of his last six meetings against Buffalo.
Bobby McMann and his new linemates have scored five goals over the last two games and seem to be getting favorable offensive-zone starts. McMann has had at least a pair of shots in all three games since returning from injury and has hit this number in 10 of his last 11 outings.
Overall, I think the Leafs roll tonight. The Sabres are in freefall mode, and I expect Toronto to take advantage. Buffalo has been outscored 44-24 throughout this 11-game losing streak with the league's worst special teams.
The Leafs should be able to take full advantage of a down-and-out Sabres squad.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Sabres odds
Maple Leafs vs Sabres live odds
Maple Leafs vs Sabres opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+149) | Buffalo +1.5 (-192)
- Moneyline: Toronto -161 | Buffalo +125
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-122) | Under 6 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Sabres trend
The Sabres are just 6-12 on the money line at home this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Sabres
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 12-20-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | HULU |
Maple Leafs vs Sabres latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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