The Toronto Maple Leafs will wrap up a four-game road trip in Dallas tonight as the Buds will be looking for their 13th point in seven games and maintain their slim lead on the Atlantic’s No. 2 spot. They blanked the Stars 4-0 in a March meeting and will have No. 1 goalie Jack Campbell in net tonight.
Can the Leafs avoid a huge letdown spot after taking three of a possible four points versus the Lightning and the Panthers? Can the Stars continue to hold onto the final playoff spot in the Western Conference? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Stars.
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Maple Leafs vs Stars odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs are gaining some steam in the market as they currently sit as -150 road favorites after opening at -135. The total sits at 6.5 and is trending towards the Over. These two clubs met in Toronto last month with the Leafs winning 4-0 as -135 home favorites with a total of 6.5. Rookie goalie Erik Kallgren was making his first NHL start in the game which is why we’re seeing a price discrepancy.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Stars predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (+105)
- Prediction: Over 6.5 (-118)
- Best bet: Marner Over 1.5 points (+140)
Predictions made on 4/07/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Stars game info
• Location: America Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southwest, Sportsnet Ontario
Maple Leafs vs Stars betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Petr Mrazek G (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out).
Stars: Jacob Peterson F (Questionable), Denis Gurianov F (Out), Braden Holtby G (Out), Esa Lindell D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Stars head-to-head record since 2015-16
Maple Leafs: 7-3 SU, 38 goals for.
Stars: 3-7 SU, 27 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 22-5 in the Maple Leafs’ last 27 when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Stars.
Maple Leafs vs Stars picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Leafs blew a 5-1 lead to the Florida Panthers and lost in overtime on Tuesday but the team still took a lot of positives from that game. They dominated the early part of the match against the best team in the East but things got ugly late after Jack Campbell had to relieve Erik Kallgren, who was forced out of the game with an injury. Regardless of the collapse, the Leafs are still 5-0-1 over their last six, they’ve beaten great opponents, and the offense is unstoppable. Heading into tonight’s matchup, there is more reason for optimism as the Leafs blanked this same Dallas team just three weeks ago and did so with a rookie goalie making his first NHL start.
The 4-0 win over Dallas was a critical victory for the Leafs. They were missing Campbell and had just lost 5-2 to the Sabres in their outdoor game. The Leafs fired 40 shots on net, took a two-goal lead into the first intermission, and had a power-play goal. Since that game, the Leafs are 8-2-1, are scoring 4.64 goals per game, and have a power play that’s clicking at 37.5%. Auston Matthews leads the league in goals while Mitch Marner leads the league in points since January 1. Jake Muzzin is also back and Campbell looked great in his first start versus the Lightning on Monday. If the Bolts and Panthers can’t stop this offense, can the Dallas Stars?
The Stars managed zero offense in their last game versus the Leafs and are scoring just 2.75 goals per game since that meeting, which ranks in the Bottom 7 of the league. It’s hard to beat this Leafs team in a low-scoring affair and if you want to beat them, you need to score. In their last seven losses, Toronto's opponents have scored at least five goals six times. Dallas comes into this matchup having scored at least five goals just twice over its last 14 games.
This is a Dallas offense that relies heavily on the Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz line to generate scoring chances. They have 17 of the team’s 44 goals over the last 30 days. This isn’t a great lineup to go shot-for-shot with the Leafs and with the way Toronto has been playing — at least six goals in five straight — Dallas won’t be able to shut them down no matter who is net for the home side.
The Leafs have their No. 1 goalie back in Campbell, which is an improvement from the last meeting. Jake Oettinger has a sub-.900 save percentage over his last 11 games while Scott Wedgewood has a 3.16 GAA in his two games since coming over to Dallas. The Leafs have beaten some of the best teams and goalies over the last two weeks and although this has the potential to be a letdown spot, the offense is too good right now and Dallas won’t be able to keep up.
Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (+105 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs offense has been cashing Overs single-handedly of late. Toronto is 6-0 to the Over in its last six and has seen an average of 9.33 total goals per game. The Leafs have had at least 10 total goals in three of those games, including Tuesday’s 13-goal track meet.
The Lightning couldn’t bottle up the Leafs’ top line and if they can’t, we doubt the Stars can. Matthews and Marner have combined for a double-take inducing 79 total points over the Leafs’ last 22 games. Matthews has 21 goals while Marner has 43 points. These are the two best players in the league right now playing at an elite level. They’re scoring at even strength and if Dallas starts chasing and taking penalties, the Leafs and their No.1 power play will make them pay. The Toronto PP has nine goals over its last six games, including three on Tuesday versus the Panthers.
Campbell made his first start in net in a month versus the Bolts on Monday and stole points away from the Tampa Bay skaters. However, Campbell had to come in relief of Kallgren on Tuesday and gave up four goals on 24 shots.
The Stars were shut out in the last meeting but they still managed to get 35 shots on net. They finished with 3.22 expected goals and the game itself finished with a total of 8.96 xGoals.
The Stars are 5-1 to the Under in their last six but we can’t see Oettinger slowing down Toronto's well-oiled machine. The Stars have played a plethora of bad opponents of late (Ducks, Islanders, Kraken, Sharks, and Canucks) so we aren’t reading too much into their recent Under numbers. The Leafs can certainly get five goals themselves and we think the Stars should be able to get a couple even after getting shut out in the previous meeting. The Leafs have given up at least three goals in six of their last nine.
This total is starting to sniff the dangerous 7 and we’re happy to watch the Leafs light the lamp again at -120 on the Over 6.5.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-118 at Coolbet)
Best bet
Matthews might be stealing all the headlines but it has been Marner’s play of late that has us reaching for our wallets. He has a multi-point game in seven straight and leads the league in points since January 1 with 67 over 37 games.
He had two assists in the last meeting and has shown a scoring touch of late with three goals over his last two games. He’s coming off a four-point performance versus the Panthers, which was on the heels of a three-point performance versus the Bolts. Whether it’s 5-on-5 or the power play, Marner and Matthews can’t be stopped right now and this team is relying on them a ton to get it done.
Pick: Marner Over 1.5 points (+140 at bet365)
