After Saturday’s overtime loss to the Lightning, the Toronto Maple Leafs face another tough tough test tonight vs. the Dallas Stars, who are scoring at the highest rate since November 1.
The Leafs have taken 19 of a possible 22 points and haven’t lost in regulation in 12 games. They enter tonight as a road pick'em, but after a sloppy game in net by Matt Murray on Saturday, can the netminder step up and slow down the league’s leading goal scorer Jason Robertson?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Stars.
Maple Leafs vs Stars best odds
Maple Leafs vs Stars picks and predictions
Jason Robertson is dominating the league right now. He has more goals than any player in hockey and is riding an 18-game point streak. His goal and points markets aren’t offering much value as the books have become efficient in those markets but his shots on goal market is certainly worth the price of admission tonight.
NHL goal-scoring leaders in the calendar year 2022:
— Saad Yousuf (@SaadYousuf126) December 5, 2022
1. Jason Robertson, 54
2. Auston Matthews, 52
3. Kirill Kaprizov, 51
T-4. David Pastrnak and Leon Draisaitl, 48
6. Connor McDavid, 46
Robertson vs. Matthews tomorrow at the AAC.
Over his last 10 games, Robertson has totaled 50 shots on net. He’s recorded four or more SOG in 14 of his last 17 games and currently sits 10th in the league in shots on net. Of those 10 skaters, he has the second-best rate at getting his shot attempts on net which is a number that isn’t likely priced into SOG markets.
The Leafs have shown they can limit shots, but with an overworked, inexperienced, injured blue line, we’re starting to see Toronto opponents get pucks on net as six of the Leafs’ last 10 games have seen them concede at least 33 shots on net. Matt Murray is also seeing nearly 35 shots on net since returning from injury.
In a game I’m projecting both teams to score at least three goals (hint: I like the Over 6.5), Robertson will be a big factor tonight and has been cashing Overs in his SOG market with an 82% hit rate since the end of October.
At -152, the implied total is just under 4.00 shots on net but I’m projecting over 5.00 shots on net tonight.
My best bet: Jason Robertson Over 3.5 shots on goal (-152 at SportsInteraction)
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Maple Leafs vs Stars moneyline analysis
The Leafs opened as slight -105 dogs but bettors moved this game to a pick‘em early this morning.
Toronto comes into tonight’s game in better form having taken a point in 11 straight games and last losing in regulation 12 games ago. However, there are some concerns — I feel — for backing the Leafs tonight vs. the offensive Stars.
First is goaltending. Matt Murray had been playing above expected before the Tampa game but the veteran goalie looked shaky on Saturday and I worry that could bleed over vs. a Dallas team that's scoring over 4.00 goals per game over the last 30 days.
Murray owns a 2.63 GAA but a 3.13 xGAA. He sits 11th in goals saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60) and is playing well above his career numbers. With the Leafs still dealing with massive injuries to the blue line, missing four starting defensemen and having to face an elite offense with a 30% power play, this is a bad road matchup for the Buds who should see regression considering they sit fourth in the league in goals against above expected.
Dallas has won five of their last 10 but has taken 14 of a possible 20 points over that stretch. They have just one loss in regulation (Colorado) over its last 10 and scored four or more goals in nine. Even in those five losses, it's averaged 3.2 goals per game.
Dallas’ Jason Robertson continues to light the NHL on fire and leads the league in goals with 23 in 25 games. He’s currently tied with Connor McDavid as the betting favorite for the Rocket Richard award at +275 and has 13 goals and five assists in his last 10 games.
Looking at the schedule, neither team has an edge as both teams come in with rest. Injuries are significant and the Leafs are heavily shorthanded missing Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, Jake Muzzin, Jordie Benn, and Calle Jarnkrok while Dallas is at full strength.
The Leafs have been injured for so long, bettors might believe that the results they’ve been getting of late are sustainable, but with their reliance on elite goaltending, that could be regressing and facing the highest-scoring team in hockey, this is a bad matchup for the Leafs — especially on the road without the last change.
Maple Leafs vs Stars Over/Under analysis
There has been some movement on the total to the Under tonight but I’d expect this game to close around -110 at 6.5.
Dallas is seeing an average of 7.4 total goals per game over their last 10 contests, which is the fifth-highest mark in hockey over that stretch. Robertson has scored in eight of his last nine games including four multi-goal games.
They’re also seeing 1.4 special-team goals per game of late, as the power play has been good and the penalty kill has been exposed. They’re also seeing 68 total shots per game over their last 10. This game has shootout potential.
The Leafs have been getting above-expected goaltending over their last 10 games and seven of those games have ended with positive goals saved above expected. In those 10 games, which include three different goalies, the Leafs have a +8.26 GSAx, which is an unsustainable number when you consider the career numbers of Murray and the injuries to the blue line.
The Leafs’ penalty kill also got exposed last game vs. the Bolts who went 2-for-6 with the man advantage. The injuries to the Toronto blueline make this a much worse unit which sits 14th in the league in PK percentage.
After starting the season hot, Dallas’ Jake Oettinger (unconfirmed starter) has also had a rough stretch of hockey. He got pulled in his last game after allowing four goals on 16 shots and owns a 3.29 GAA with a sub-.900 save percentage over his last 10 games.
I do think both teams can score three goals tonight which is what I always look for when betting Over 6.5s. Mitch Marner is looking for a point in 20 straight games while Robertson has a point in 18 straight games. This could be a very offensive game.
Maple Leafs vs Stars betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0-1 in the Stars’ last five games vs. Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Stars.
Maple Leafs vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 6, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet Ontario, HULU |
Maple Leafs vs Stars key injuries
