We’ve got a busy NHL betting slate tonight with 13 games on tap, including a cross-conference clash between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
William Nylander has been in a funk since the Christmas break, but a matchup tonight against the team he’s fared well against is the focus of my Maple Leafs vs. Stars predictions.
Read my NHL picks for January 14 below for more.
Maple Leafs vs Stars prediction
My Leafs pick
William Nylander anytime goalscorer (+185 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off back-to-back losses to Carolina and Vancouver, two playoff-worthy opponents, and have another top team in their way tonight in the Dallas Stars, who are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games.
However, the Buds play Dallas well every year. Toronto has won seven straight against the Stars with a 29-13 goal ratio. William Nylander has led the way during this stretch with a team-high five goals and 10 points through the seven-game stretch.
The skilled Swedish forward has been snakebitten lately with just one goal in his last 10 games, but he’s bound to break out of this slump eventually. His shooting percentage can’t hover at 4% as it has during this skid, and the Stars are a perfect team to break through against. Such is especially true on home ice, where he's scored 15 of his 24 goals this year.
The last time the Leafs and Stars played back on December 18, Nylander netted two goals for Toronto, just as he did the time before that last February.
Additionally, Dallas has been leaky defensively over their last five games. Despite winning four of them, the Stars have surrendered an average of 29.4 shots per game, all of which were against low-scoring non-playoff teams.
Toronto has certainly struggled with putting the puck in the back of the net this season, but they rank 11th in the NHL in expected goals in all situations. If Dallas is going to be giving up shots, Toronto has shown the ability to generate quality chances.
Considering the Stars are middle of the pack when it comes to high-danger save percentage, there’s a chance the Buds could find a way to get a few goals to drop tonight, and Nylander is typically among the league leaders in high-danger shots, ranking in the 95th percentile league-wide, according to the NHL Edge Advanced Stats.
Additionally, Nylander has a new linemate on the left wing in Matthew Knies. This new trio of Knies, Nylander, and John Tavares should get a bulk of the offensive zone starts tonight to put this line in better scoring positions, especially at home with the last change.
Maple Leafs vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
William Nylander anytime goalscorer
William Nylander 3+ shots
Bobby McMann 2+ shots
We’ll keep it rolling with the Nylander prop market and take him to record 3+ shots on the net tonight. He’s only hit this number twice since the New Year, but with Dallas giving up shots in bunches lately, Nylander should be motivated to throw everything he can on net to try and beat Oettinger.
For the final leg of our SGP, let's roll with another shot prop to target this leaky defensive zone coverage and take Bobby McMann to record 2+ shots tonight. He’s hit this number in 24 of his last 29 games, including the last game against Dallas, when his line scored three times on five shots.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Stars odds
Maple Leafs vs Stars live odds
Maple Leafs vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -120 | Dallas +100
- Moneyline: Toronto -1.5 (+195) | Dallas +1.5 (-240)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Maple Leafs vs Stars trend
The Maple Leafs are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings against the Stars. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Stars.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Stars
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-14-2025 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4 |
Maple Leafs vs Stars latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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