We’ve got 10 games on the betting slate tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs at American Airlines Arena.
It’s sibling rivalry night with the Robertson brothers facing off in the D, but it’s the goaltending duel that I think shines through tonight with two former Boston area collegiate rivals battling between the pipes as I break down why in my Maple Leafs vs. Stars predictions.
Find out why in my NHL picks for this Wednesday, December 18 Leafs vs. Stars matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Stars prediction
My Leafs pick
Alternate Under 6.5 total goals (-155 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs travel down to Dallas tonight for a date with one of the top home teams in the NHL. The Dallas Stars are 13-3 on home ice this season, allowing just 2.00 goals per game.
A big part of that success has been the stellar goaltending from Stars netminder Jake Oettinger, who’s been incredible at home, posting a 12-2 record with a .928 sv% and a 1.92 GAA.
Luckily for Toronto, they have the talent in goal to match Oettinger with his fellow Boston College rival Joseph Woll manning the Leafs pipes, who has a 2.24 GAA and a .924 SV% this season.
Strong goaltending has been the backbone of Toronto’s season, thus limiting teams to just 2.6 goals per game, ranking sixth in the NHL.
This has been imperative to Toronto’s success because goalscoring has surprisingly been an issue for the Leafs. The team is struggling to score at 5-on-5 and ranks 19th on the power play. Overall, the Buds average just 2.97 goals per game and are scoring at an even lower rate away from home, netting only 2.62 goals per contest.
So I’m not expecting an offensive eruption for Toronto tonight against Oettinger at American Airlines Arena.
As for Dallas, they can score a little bit more, averaging 3.23 goals per game, but its power play is worse than Toronto’s, and they have a top-10 PK, which has resulted in the Stars going 17-10-3 on the Under this year. In fact, between the two teams, the Under is a combined 34-21-6 this season. It’s also hit in five of the last seven meetings between the Leafs and Stars.
This combination makes me believe that goals will be at a premium tonight, and taking the Under of 6.5 goals feels like a good bet tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6.5 goals
Matthews 4+ shots
Mason Marchment 2+ shots
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll stick with the best bet and take the alternate Under of 6.5 goals.
Next up, I like Auston Matthews to record 4+ shots on the net tonight. Coach Berube has created a super line with Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, and I expect that line to be buzzing and get a lot of offensive zone faceoffs tonight to try to generate as much offense as possible. Thus, I think Matthews will try to throw everything on the net tonight.
For the final leg of the SGP, I’m going to take former Maple Leaf Mason Marchment to record 2+ shots on goal tonight. He’s hit this total in eight of his last nine games and has been one of the most productive Stars forwards this season with 27 points, averaging 2.44 shots per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Stars odds
Maple Leafs vs Stars live odds
Maple Leafs vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-225) | Dallas -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Toronto +115 | Dallas -135
- Over/Under: Over 6 (+100) | Under 6 (-120)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Stars trend
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 8-2 on the money line in their last 10 games against the Stars. Find more NHL betting trends between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Dallas Stars. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Stars.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Stars
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-18-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Stars latest injuries
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