The two betting favorites for the MVP will meet tonight as Jason Robertson and the Dallas Stars welcome Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers tonight.
Edmonton has dropped four of its last five but has been cashing Overs, going 8-2 O/U in its last 10 while Dallas — a -145 favorite tonight — has been playing Under hockey, going 3-7 O/U in its last 10. Which style of hockey will dictate the pace of play tonight with a total 6.5 leaning to the Over?
Find out in my free NHL betting picks and predictions for the Oilers vs. Stars.
Oilers vs Stars best odds
Oilers vs Stars picks and predictions
The Edmonton Oilers have been leaning heavily on their power play in their last 10 games as they've recorded 17 goals on the man advantage, accounting for 44% of their total goals in that span.
Edmonton is scoring at 44.7% on the power play and has seven games with multi-PP goals in its last 10. It’s about as hot as a unit can get and where I’m targeting my best bet tonight.
Connor McDavid (-200) and Leon Draisaitl (-175) are too taxed to take for a power-play point, but considering defenseman Tyson Barrie is +110 for a PP point and -114 for an anytime point, there is some value in his point market considering his production with the extra attacker.
The PP1 pointman has 11 power-play points over his last 10 games and has at least one point in seven straight — all coming via the power play. He might only get 60% of the power-play time, but he gets more touches than Zach Hyman who plays net front and has just four PP points over his last 14 games.
If Barrie is finding the scoresheet, it’s more than likely with the man advantage as 18 of his 26 points on the season have come on the PP.
The Stars do have a good penalty kill, but the Oilers have been getting too many opportunities of late and even drew six minor penalties in the last meeting.
I don’t love Barrie’s game, but when the power play is this hot and he has McDavid to his right and Draisaitl to his left, he’s in a great spot to collect a point — likely on the power play.
My best bet: Tyson Barrie Over 0.5 points (-114)
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Oilers vs Stars moneyline analysis
The Oilers will be playing their last road game before the Christmas break that begins on Saturday. Tonight’s matchup will wrap up a quick two-game road trip that saw Edmonton lose to Nashville in overtime Monday. This is a team that has relied heavily on its play with the man advantage to produce offense as the Oilers have scored nearly 45% of their goals over the last 10 games from the power play.
It will be tough to blank the Oilers with the extra attacker, but holding them to just one goal could go a long way for the Stars, as Edmonton has scored multiple PP goals in four straight and in seven of their last 10.
However, Edmonton has dropped three straight games and has recorded two PP goals in each of those contests, so if Dallas can win the 5-on-5 battle, the edge is with the home side that opened at -140 and is getting shorter.
The Stars are a Top 10 team at even strength and have a +14 goal differential that is seventh best in hockey. They’re playing great Under hockey of late and have conceded just seven 5-on-5 goals over their last five games. Edmonton ranks 27th in 5-on-5 goal differential and has allowed more even-strength goals than the Arizona Coyotes.
Jake Oettinger has found his early-season form as the Dallas goalkeeper is 5-2 SU in his last eight games with a 2.02 GAA and a .931 SV%. He didn’t see the Oilers in his team's 6-2 win in a November meeting, so it could be even more difficult for the visitors tonight with one of the hottest goalies manning the crease.
The Stars will likely see Stuart Skinner in net. The Edmonton goalie is coming off a rough 13-save loss to the lowly Ducks and hasn’t held an opponent to Under two goals in 16 straight starts, owning a 3.07 GAA over that stretch.
With the Oilers getting a lot of power-play time, that means their PK has been busy as well, as NHL refs tend to keep things even in terms of minor penalties being called. Edmonton ranks in the Bottom 10 in penalty-kill percentage over the last 10 games and 26th on the season. Skinner ranks as one of the worst goalies in hockey in goals saved above expected/60 on the PK while shorthanded.
The Stars have the edge at 5-on-5 tonight and that could go a long way in a game I see both power plays making an impact.
Oilers vs Stars Over/Under analysis
The last time these two teams met back in early November, this total closed at 7 in a 6-2 Dallas win that saw no empty netters. Now we’re getting a total of 6.5 that has seen some movement to the Over — but I’m not sold on it.
The Stars are 7-3 to the Under in their last 10 games and are seeing just 5.4 total goals per game in December. I know the Oilers have been an Over wagon of late, going 8-2 O/U in their last 10, but it’s usually the defensive team that dictates the pace of play and that’s Dallas.
Variance with this total is high though as Edmonton's play with the man advantage could certainly create more than the usual amount of power-play opportunities for both sides, increasing the probability of the Over.
This is a total I’m going to pass on as there are valid arguments for both the Over and Under here.
Oilers vs Stars betting trend to know
The Oilers are 1-5 in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs Stars.
Oilers vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 21, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, Sportsnet One |
