Oilers vs Wild Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

Two of the stingiest defenses in the NHL will face off at Rogers Place, and our NHL picks expect those defenses to be at their best.

Todd Cordell - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Todd Cordell • Betting Analyst
Nov 21, 2024 • 12:00 ET • 4 min read

NHL

Match starts: 4 hrs
EDM
61 %
MIN
39 %
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Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers NHL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Edmonton Oilers have really come on of late, posting a 4-1-1 record over the last six games while finding more success at both ends of the ice. They’ll have a tough test Thursday night, playing host to the Minnesota Wild, who are off to a terrific 12-3-3 start.

My Wild vs. Oilers predictions see a hotly contested battle between two of the league’s best teams, with goals proving hard to come by. Let’s take a closer look with my NHL picks for November 21.

Oilers vs Wild prediction

My Oilers pick
Under 6.5 (-125 at BET99)

My Oilers analysis
The Edmonton Oilers have largely defended well of late, slowing their pace of play and sucking the life out of opposing offenses by limiting them in both quantity and quality.

During 5-on-5 play, Edmonton ranks sixth in shot suppression and fifth in expected goals against over the last 10 games. They have also posted top-tier metrics in penalty-killing situations, sitting second in shots against and first in expected goals.

They are not giving up much at 5-on-5 and have enjoyed a ton of success while undermanned. Edmonton is very disciplined as well, spending less time shorthanded than all but two teams over the last 10 games. Factor in the goaltending that's improved lately, and there just aren’t many easy avenues for creating offense against this Oilers team.

The Minnesota Wild are also a great defensive team. Their recent metrics are mid-tier in terms of limiting shot volume, but they're giving up very little in terms of quality. Minnesota ranks third at 5-on-5 expected goals suppression the past 10 games, allowing just 1.95 per 60 minutes of play.

They have the fourth-best save percentage during that time. Opponents have struggled mightily to find the back of the net against Minnesota as a result. With both teams defending well at 5-on-5 and limiting the penalties they’re taking, high-quality chances should come few and far between for both sides.

It’s also worth noting Zach Hyman suffered an injury against the Senators last time out. The Oilers have since recalled forward Drake Caggiula, likely an indication Hyman will be unable to play against Minnesota.

Hyman hasn’t been as productive this season, but he's one of Edmonton’s best weapons and takes a bite out of this attack in a game that projects to have limited offense.

Oilers vs Wild same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 6.5

Kirill Kaprizov Under 1.5 points

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 shots

It’s always scary to stand in the way of one of the NHL’s scoring leaders, but this is a spot for doing so. Although Kirill Kaprizov has recorded multiple points in four of his past eight games, his ceiling spots have been matchup-dependent.

Kaprizov recorded 2+ points against bottom-feeders like Anaheim, San Jose, St. Louis, and Montreal while failing to get the job done against stingier sides (Toronto, Los Angeles, Dallas). Edmonton falls into the latter category. Not to mention, this correlates very well with the Under 6.5. 

Connor McDavid is a sneaky good candidate to pile up shots in this game. The Wild give up few chances but are only a middle of the pack team in preventing shots on target. They give up an above-average amount of shots to centers, and McDavid has cleared this number in five of seven games since returning from injury.

He's also generated noticeably more volume on home soil, averaging 7.7 attempts per game compared to 5.9 on the road.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Oilers vs Wild odds

Oilers vs Wild live odds

Oilers vs Wild opening odds

  • Puck line: Edmonton -1.5 (+161) | Minnesota +1.5 (-180)
  • Moneyline: Edmonton -153 | Minnesota +135
  • Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6

Odds courtesy of BET99.

Oilers vs Wild trend

Connor McDavid has recorded 4+ shots in four of the past five home games against the Wild. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Wild.

How to watch Oilers vs Wild

Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
Date: Thursday, 11-21-2024
Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: SNW

Oilers vs Wild latest injuries

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Todd Cordell - Covers
Betting Analyst

Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.

When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.

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