Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 2 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Effects of Game 1 Will Be Felt

The Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes played nearly 140 minutes of hockey Thursday in the Panthers’ 3-2 4-OT win in Game 1. Now both clubs have just one day to regroup, and the pressure is on the home side, which doesn’t want to hit the road down 2-0 in the series. 

With just a day off after a marathon Game 1, I’m not projecting a lot of offense tonight, and history has proven that scoring can dry up late in a game that follows a match of 100 minutes or more. 

Find out where my best bet lies in our NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Hurricanes Game 2 on May 20.

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 2 odds

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 2 predictions

Following the sixth-longest game in NHL history and just a single day off, the legs are certainly going to be tired for Game 2. Many bettors will be looking at the first frame to hit the Under, but the effects of Game 1 will certainly be felt more in the later parts of tonight’s match. 

Carolina Hurricanes forward Sebastian Aho played 46 minutes, while the Florida Panthers' Carter Verhaeghe and Alex Barkov both played nearly 45 minutes. That’s nearly triple their usual ice time. It gets even sillier when we look at defensemen, as Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling, and Brent Burns all played over 55 minutes. There might be some energy in the first frame, but as Game 2 goes on, this game could certainly slow down, and previous marathon games have proven that right.

Looking at matches that went at least two extra periods over the last 20 years, the Under is a cool 11-5 in the following game (looking specifically at games that happened in the same series, and not elimination games). Looking even further, of the last nine longest non-elimination games, the Under is doing even better at an 8-1 mark.

In those games, I’m seeing a decent rate of first-period scoring, but the offense really dries up in the final 40 minutes as possible fatigue sets in and lactic acid builds up.

The total has moved 10 points towards the Under compared to Game 1, which is warranted even without the marathon series opener. The Panthers and Sergei Bobrovsky can slow down the Canes’ extremely high shooting percentage on high-danger chances they’ve posted in the playoffs (10-point difference over the regular season), and Freddy Andersen is also locked in and owns a playoff-best .936 SV%.

With how Game 1 went, it’s tough to find an edge in a player prop, and all of that ice time creates a little more variance in projecting output. Things should be slow throughout the game, especially late as past long games have shown us.

Don’t expect a fast-paced up-and-down Game 2 tonight. Carolina is one of the stingiest home teams in hockey, and Bobrovsky and the Panthers haven’t allowed more than two goals in six straight games.

My best bet: Under 5.5 (+104 at Unibet)

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 2 same-game parlay

Duclair Over 1.5 SOG

Necas Over 2.5 SOG

Under 5.5

+450 at bet365

Anthony Duclair has a SOG/60 mark in the playoffs similar to Verhaege's, and tied for a game-high eight shots on goal in Game 1. Carolina can still lock down the shot attempts, so taking a Florida player with a 1.5 total is much safer.

Grabbing a player from the home side, it's hard to not take Martin Necas Over 2.5 SOG (-160). He's third on the team in shot attempts/60 and is 9-3 to the Over so far in the playoffs. He also plays on the top power-play unit and could be leaned on if Carolina is trailing and facing a 2-0 series deficit.

When we add the Under 5.5 (+100) to the SGP we're getting +450 odds, which is a little better than the true odds of +430 thanks to a multiplier we're getting by taking two over props with an Under 5.5.   

I'd love to make a giant parlay here, but thanks to the lengthy affair on Thursday, projecting player props is a little tougher tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 2 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There are a lot of subjective ways to look at this handicap thanks to the seven-period game the clubs played on Thursday. It’s a tough and quick turnaround for both teams, but let’s look at a few of the key areas.

The Panthers entered the season ranked as the 15th youngest team at 27.1 years old, while the Hurricanes weren’t too far off at 27.3 (17th). It’s safe to say neither team has a recovery edge thanks to age. Even in net there isn’t much, as Bobrovsky is 34 and Andersen is 33. 

Being on the road would be a slight disadvantage, as the Hurricanes likely have better amenities and possibly more access to things they need, but that’s debatable at best.

Looking at other long playoff games (longer than two overtimes) since 1980, teams that won the first game went on to go 11-31 SU in the second game. That’s just a 35% win percentage for the team that won the marathon game in the following match. 

Looking at the metrics of Game 1, it was actually Florida that finished with more high-danger and overall scoring chances at 5-on-5, and the visitors were the only team to score on a high-danger chance. Many of those chances did come later in the game, as Carolina was the better team with expected metrics in the first 60 minutes, but Florida surprised me vs. a very tough home team.

Bobrovsky continues to steal games for the Panthers, who have yet to allow more than two goals in six straight games. Carolina finished the first two rounds with a playoff-best 27% shooting percentage on high-danger chances, but that rate might not be sustainable in this series, as they ranked 28th during the regular season with a 16.47 HDSH%.

Carolina closed Game 1 at -145, and currently sits at -150 on the moneyline. But the 5-point move is a standard thing by oddsmakers when a home team loses the first game of a series.

I thought Florida would be outmatched and outcoached on the road, but I was wrong. This might be a more even series than I projected, giving the Panthers a slight value in the NHL odds at their current +130 price tag.

The Under is also going to see some love from bettors in Game 2. This total hit 6 in Game 1, and after the marathon battle Thursday and both goalies looking locked in, the move to 5.5 makes sense.

Florida has hit the Under in six straight games and has settled into a team that looks mighty different than its Round 1 self. Low-scoring games in Carolina are nothing new either, as the Canes averaged just 5.78 total goals per game and the third-lowest GAA at 2.46.

Andersen and Bobrovsky have also been two elite playoff goalies, and both sit in the Top 4 in goals saved above expected/60. I love the Under, especially after the number of minutes everyone played Thursday.

Panthers vs Hurricanes betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the Panthers' last six overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Hurricanes.

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 2 game info

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 2 injuries

Pages related to this topic