The Tampa Bay Lightning have dropped five of their last seven, and that includes a 7-3 defeat at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who conveniently roll into Amalie Arena tonight as +130 road dogs.
The Pens have ripped off three straight wins and cling to the last playoff spot in the East, but the Bolts haven’t lost three straight all season. The Tampa Bay power play could see plenty of opportunities tonight, but Victor Hedman won’t be quarterbacking the top unit.
Find out my best bets in our NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Lightning on Thursday, March 2.
Penguins vs Lightning best odds
Penguins vs Lightning picks and predictions
Brayden Point’s Over 2.5 shots market has moved from -125 to -140 since his last game on Tuesday. The move has taken a bit of value out of his NHL player props, and despite how hot Point has been for the Lightning (goals in five straight games, 10 points in that span) there might be more value elsewhere in a matchup where the Bolts could see more power play opportunities.
On Tuesday, Mikhail Sergachev took over the point on the first power play unit and logged seven minutes at 5-on-4 for a unit that went 1-for-5 vs. the Florida Panthers. With him taking over the top role instead of Victor Hedman, getting the blueliner for a point at -110 is a deal.
Sergachev has totaled 25 points in 29 games at home this season for the highest-scoring home offense in hockey. He had one assist vs. the Penguins on Sunday despite not getting any PP1 minutes, and is coming off a game Tuesday where he logged over 35 minutes of ice time, which led all skaters in that game.
Tampa also draws the second-most penalties per game, and faces a Pittsburgh penalty kill that ranks 28th in the league since Jan. 1.
Sergachev is going to see a ton of ice tonight, and plenty of that could come on an elite power play. His probability of collecting a point tonight is better than 50%, which is what the current odds are implying.
My best bet: Mikhail Sergachev Over 0.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
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Penguins vs Lightning moneyline analysis
It’s tough to say that Tampa Bay will put in a solid performance tonight after losing to the Pens 7-3 on Sunday. The Lightning were in a similar situation on Tuesday facing the Panthers as -170 favorites.
Tampa took an uninspiring 4-1 loss in that game, which was on the heels of another embarrassing loss in Florida just one week earlier. They had a chance to avenge that bad loss but didn't, much like the opportunity tonight. However, this is still one of the best home teams in hockey, and losing in bunches is something the Lightning don’t do.
Of the Lightning’s last seven games, the five losses have come as an average favorite of -172 on the moneyline. It’s a rough stretch for the Lightning, who are in the middle of a race with the Maple Leafs for home ice in the playoffs.
Looking at the rosters for tonight, both teams come in very healthy with no names of note on the injured list. Tampa has added Tanner Jeanot, who has jumped onto the third line, while fourth-liner Vladislav Namestnikov was traded to the Sharks.
Pittsburgh has dealt fourth-liner Teddy Blueger and added veteran Mikael Granlund, who slots into the third line. Neither move does much in terms of pricing this game, but Tampa did close as +100 road dogs in Pittsburgh on Sunday. With home ice being worth roughly 25 points, today’s -150 odds for the home side line up well with the last meeting’s pricing.
Both teams were on the tail end of a back-to-back in that game, and Brian Elliott was in net for the Lightning. Casey DeSmith started between the pipes for the Pens, but the drop from Andrei Vasilevskiy to Elliott is bigger than Tristan Jarry to DeSmith.
The game was much closer than the 7-3 score indicated, too. MoneyPuck had Tampa winning that game 50.7% of the time. Elliott’s play was a big reason for the lopsided score, as he finished with -3.68 goals saved above expected.
Jarry has been average since returning from his second injury stint (2-2 SU with a sub-.900 SV%), and Vasilevskiy is 10-1-1 in his last 12 home starts.
Pittsburgh will have a tougher task against Tampa at home, as the Bolts are the league’s highest-scoring home offense at 4.07 goals per game (GPG), and their 2.63 home GAA ranks sixth in the league. That makes for the second-best home goal differential at plus-1.44.
It’s tough to jump back on the Bolts here after the letdown on Tuesday vs. the Panthers, but this is still the second-best home team in hockey, and a team that hasn’t lost three games in a row this year.
Penguins vs Lightning Over/Under analysis
Don’t let the 7-3 game on Sunday fool you — that was an affair featuring two backup goalies, and two teams on the second game of a traveling back-to-back.
The Bolts do have the best home offense in all of hockey, but with them staring down their first three-game losing streak of the season, we’re going to see a motivated performance from the home side.
That 10-goal tilt saw over three unexpected goals, per MoneyPuck, and considering the current price of Over 6.5 (-120) was the same price as Sunday with the backups, the Under might be the better side tonight. Pittsburgh also scored five goals in the final five minutes of the second period, which won’t happen again.
Tampa gave up three goals in the first period vs. Florida but settled things down afterward and saw just another two goals scored over the next 40 minutes. They can play long stretches of tight hockey, and even more so at home.
The Bolts' penalty kill has also allowed just two goals over its last 10 games and has a 92.3% success rate, which certainly favors the Under.
With two teams playing for a lot and coming off a high-scoring meeting recently, tonight’s game could look different. My lean is on the Under 6.5 at even money.
Penguins vs Lightning betting trend to know
The favorite is 44-20 in the last 64 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Lightning.
Penguins vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, March 2, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, Bally Sun |
