We have an Eastern Conference tilt in Wednesday’s nightcap with the Atlantic Division’s Buffalo Sabres hosting the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins. Last season, Buffalo won two of the three meetings between these two clubs.
Will the Sabres take care of business once again, or can Pittsburgh grab a victory as a short NHL odds road favorite? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for the Penguins vs Sabres on Wednesday, November 2.
Penguins vs Sabres best odds
Penguins vs Sabres picks and predictions
The Penguins enter this game amidst a five-game losing streak, and on the second half of a back-to-back where they traveled following an overtime game. This losing streak is likely to continue against an up-and-coming Buffalo team.
Since it is on the second half of a back-to-back, we can expect backup goaltender Casey DeSmith to start between the pipes for Pittsburgh. Over his last two starts against the Sabres, DeSmith is 0-1-1 with a .902 SV% and 2.91 GAA.
In front of DeSmith is a team that ranks 15th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. Additionally, it is dealing with the absence of star defenseman Kris Letang, who missed last night’s game due to an illness.
It is unclear whether he will be ready to go or not in Buffalo, but his absence would be a huge blow for an already average blue line. His absence was certainly felt in Tuesday’s game against the Boston Bruins as the Penguins surrendered six goals.
On the other side, the Sabres enter this contest in strong form following their dominating 8-3 win over the Detroit Red Wings Monday night. In fact, Buffalo has now won five of its last seven games as the team continues to improve under head coach Don Granato.
Because of previous seasons, critics continue to underestimate this up-and-coming club. However, Rasmus Dahlin has finally emerged as the star defenseman he was projected to be, Tage Thompson continues to score at a high clip despite doubters clamouring for regression, and the Sabres have a strong revolving cast of role players that help produce in all three zones to round out a solid hockey team.
At 5v5, Buffalo ranks inside the Top 9 in the league in both goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) and goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60). Backing up this team is the goaltending tandem of Eric Comrie and Craig Anderson.
It is unclear which guy will start in tonight’s matchup, but either is a good option as they both have looked relatively strong to start the year. These teams are trending in two very different directions, and while the Penguins will likely figure it out, I am not confident they will do so on the second half of a back-to-back following a night where they lost a dramatic overtime game.
My best bet: Sabres moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
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Penguins vs Sabres moneyline analysis
My main concern in backing Buffalo in this contest is its thin blue line. Henri Jokiharju is considered week-to-week with a facial fracture, Ilya Lyubushkin is questionable with a lower-body injury, and Mattias Samuelsson is out for several weeks with a lower-body injury.
Regression is likely to hit this group soon, especially considering the injuries on the back end. At 5v5, the Sabres rank just 24th in the league in xGA/60.
However, the regression might hold off for just one more game as the Penguins come into town in awful form. Pittsburgh had to travel for this game following a demoralizing loss to Boston, and some tired legs from the Pens should help out a thin Buffalo defense.
Penguins vs Sabres Over/Under analysis
The Over should also be a strong bet to make in this contest and I plan to hop on that as well. Both of these teams are coming off games where there were 11 total goals scored, which is a product of two strong offenses.
At 5v5, both the Penguins and Sabres rank inside the Top 10 in GF/60 and Top 12 in xGF/60. Meanwhile, both teams could potentially be missing key pieces to their defenses with the absences of Letang, Jokiharju, Samuelsson, and Lyubushkin.
I do not necessarily trust either Casey DeSmith or Eric Comrie, each of which should guarantee to let in at least two goals. It should not be too difficult to come by two-to-three more goals in this contest considering the offensive firepower each team possesses.
Rasmus Dahlin is emerging as the star he was projected to be while Tage Thompson is fighting off the regression that many critics expected from him this year. Meanwhile, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin need no introduction for Pittsburgh.
Penguins vs Sabres betting trend to know
The Pittsburgh Penguins have lost five straight games. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Sabres.
Penguins vs Sabres game info
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 2, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
