Kicking off Saturday’s NHL slate is a Metropolitan Division tilt between the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals on ABC.
These teams have already squared off twice this season, with the NHL odds Over/Under going 1-1 between those two outings.
Will we see a high-scoring affair, or can these goaltenders shut things down? Find out in our free NHL picks for Rangers vs. Capitals on Saturday, January 13.
Rangers vs Capitals odds
Rangers vs Capitals predictions
I expect this matchup to go Under the total of 5.5. The first reason for this thinking is the play of goaltender Charlie Lindgren, who is expected to start between the pipes for Washington.
Flying under the radar this year, Lindgren has put together one of the best campaigns among netminders. Through 15 appearances in the crease, he is 7-3-3 with a commanding .928 SV% and 2.27 GAA.
This success is likely to continue against the Rangers, a team that Lindgren shut out en route to a 4-0 victory earlier in the season. Additionally, the Blueshirts’ offense is primed for regression.
While their surface-level stats are strong, New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. With that said, the Capitals offense is even worse, ranking 28th or lower in power play percentage, shots on goal per game, and goals scored per game.
Their analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking 29th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. Making things worse is the fact that Tom Wilson and Alex Ovechkin are both questionable for Saturday’s contest, two of their Top 4 guys in terms of point production.
On top of the injury bug, this offensively-challenged lineup is tasked with going against one of the best goaltenders in the world as Igor Shesterkin is projected to start between the pipes. Yes, Shesterkin has dealt with some inconsistencies this season, but he is still an elite presence and completely shut down Washington last time out as he stopped 26 of 27 pucks for a .963 SV%.
In his career against the Caps, he is now 7-4 with a .913 SV% and 2.74 GAA. Additionally, Shesterkin gets the benefit of playing behind one of the better blue lines in the league as New York ranks 13th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
My best bet: Under 5.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
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Rangers vs Capitals same-game parlay
Under 5.5
Rangers moneyline
The only “advantage” one could argue for Washington on Saturday is that Lindgren has been more consistent between the pipes than Shesterkin. However, I still trust Shesterkin more, and New York possesses every other advantage in this matchup.
The Rangers are stronger offensively, defensively, in the faceoff circle, and on special teams. I also don’t give too much of a home-ice edge to the Caps, considering they are under .500 when playing at Capital One Arena this season.
New York has won three of the past four meetings between these two teams, and I expect another victory in a low-scoring affair on Saturday.
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Rangers vs Capitals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Rangers opened as a -172 favorite and have since been bet down to -164. The betting market clearly is starting to dislike New York and Shesterkin for the recent inconsistencies, but that just makes me like the Rangers more in this spot considering the buy-low situation.
That brings us to the total, which has bounced between 5.5 and 6, depending on the book. Personally, I would rather take the plus-money at Under 5.5, but I believe there is also value in the Under 6 at -115 if you wish to go that route.
Not only are Ovechkin and Wilson banged up for Washington, but Mika Zibanejad is also questionable for New York after missing Thursday’s game with an illness.
Rangers vs Capitals betting trend to know
The Game Total Under has hit in 22 of Washington’s past 40 home games for an 11% ROI. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Capitals.
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Rangers vs Capitals game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Saturday, January 13, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Rangers vs Capitals latest injuries
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