Red Wings vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Can Leafs Find the Net?

The Toronto Maple Leafs picked up a much-needed two points on Wednesday in a 3-2 OT win at Chicago, now they’ll get another massive advantage as they play host to the Detroit Red Wings, who will be on the back-end of a traveling back-to-back after a 3-2 OT loss last night vs. the Panthers in Detroit.

The Leafs come in as massive -290 home favorites with the Red Wings paying +250 on the ML. Toronto will start back-up and former Red Wing Petr Mrazek, who is coming off an injury, while the Wings will likely counter with Thomas Greiss. The total sits at 6 and is leaning to the Under.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs for Saturday, October 30.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Red Wings vs Maple Leafs picks

• Red Wings +1.5 (+100)
• Under 6 (-115)

Picks made on 10/30/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, October 30, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, BSN

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Red Wings: Jakub Vrana F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (2018-20)

Red Wings: 2-7 SU, 21 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 7-2 SU, 36 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in Maple Leafs’ last seven games vs. Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs.

Red Wings vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Red Wings +1.5 (+100)

The Toronto Maple Leafs get back to the comforts of Scotiabank Arena after a three-game road trip that saw them go 1-2 SU, with that lone win coming in OT versus a Chicago team that was missing its best offensive player in Patrick Kane. That win came just four days after getting blown out by the Penguins, 7-2, in a game where Pittsburgh was without its three top centermen and its best defenseman. Toronto hasn’t instilled a ton of confidence into bettors, but can they really lose to the Wings?

In the Chicago loss, the Leafs showed a ton of heart, coming back after trailing 2-0 early in the game. But if it weren’t for goalie Jack Campbell, we're so sure Toronto would've pulled off that win — and Campbell will not get the start tonight. The Leafs finished with just 1.61 expected goals in that game, and if they had lost, it would have been their fifth in a row. 

Instead, Petr Mrazek will be between the pipes for the struggling Leafs. Mrazek was injured in his first start and this will be his first action since exiting in Ottawa, allowing three goals in 26 shots against the Senators. He spent five seasons with Detroit to begin his career. 

At this price, the only option we have on betting on the Leafs is on the puck line at -1.5 (-120). That is a lot to ask from a team that averaging 2.00 goals per game, 3.13 goals against, owning the fifth-worst power play, the third-worst expected goals against, and leading the league in turnovers per game. 

The Wings have surprised many to begin the year and own a 4-2-2 record, taking points in six of their eight games. They took the league’s best team, the Panthers, to overtime last night as +154 home dogs. The Wings have a better expected goal differential at 5-on-5 than Toronto and will start Thomas Greiss, who has allowed two or fewer goals in three of his four starts this year. Greiss is a solid goalie with a .915 save percentage over 215 career games. The Wings have taken points off of the Lightning, Panthers and Capitals this season, as well as wins over the Canucks, Blue Jackets and Blackhawks. 

Tonight’s game will be the opening of a five-game homestand for the Buds, but is also critical, as the Leafs have the Golden Knights, Lightning and Bruins on deck. If they are looking ahead, they could be in trouble. The thought of losing this game and possibly the next three against tough opponents could be weighing on Toronto’s collective minds. 

This is a game of indicators as Toronto, despite the losses, still leads the league in expected goals for, while the Red Wings sit 25th in expected goals against. Betting on Toronto, in this spot, is hoping that the Leafs break out of their shooting slump, and we still aren’t betting on anything we haven’t seen yet. This could be another one-goal game as both teams have played a total of seven of them this year. It’s not often we get the +1.5 at even money.

Under 6 (-115)

Combined, both clubs have started the year 11-5 to the Under. The Leafs have not scored more than three goals in any game this year, and neither of these offenses is 100 percent confident right now. Both power plays sit in the bottom 10 of the league and with Toronto’s recent play, the Leafs seem to lack the ability to stack goals like they did a season ago.

If the Leafs were playing a team that had more than one potent scoring line, we’d be eyeing the Over a little more, but after the Raymond-Larkin-Bertuzzi line, Detroit really lacks scoring depth.

Greiss is more of a 1B starting goalie than a backup. He is just three seasons removed from a 2.28 GAA season with the Islanders and is coming off a two-goal game versus the Capitals in Washington that Detroit won in overtime. Greiss sits 17th in goals saved above expected in the league and has positive numbers in most other goalie advanced metrics.

Having Mrazek in net for Toronto may be a good thing for a team that has become dependent on Campbell bailing it out. Mrazek is much like Greiss and has tons of experience, but is coming off a lower-body injury. We’re more confident in Greiss than Mrazek. Sheldon Keefe’s team may have to play a more disciplined and smarter game with the puck, as they will want to give their backup his first win with the new club. 

Both teams are grinding for points and Toronto needs a solid performance or it will have to hear about it constantly while at home during this five-game homestand. 

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