With the All-Star break approaching, this will be the last game until February 11 for both the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens ahead of their second meeting in four days.
The Sens blanked the losing-focus Habs 5-0 on Saturday as -240 favorites and sit as -180 road favorites tonight at the Bell Centre. Can the home side stay competitively offensively with eight contributing forwards on the shelf? Find out my best bet for the Senators vs. Canadiens in my NHL betting picks and predictions.
Senators vs Canadiens best odds
Senators vs Canadiens picks and predictions
Claude Giroux has hit another gear heading into the break. He has eight points over his last four games and has recorded a helper in each one of those contests. He was also announced as the NHL's first star of the week with seven points over three games.
With seven points in three games, Claude Giroux is our #NHL Player of the Week! pic.twitter.com/nPiYwxqtTU
— OfficePools.com (@officepools_com) January 30, 2023
His line with Alex DeBrincat and rookie Ridly Greig could also see some elite matchups tonight with the Habs likely using their last change vs. the Stutzle-Tkachuk-Joseph line.
Giroux has been a point-per-game skater since December 1 and leads the team with 27 points over that stretch of 27 games. The winger/center averages Under 2.5 shots per game on the season and looks to pass more than shoot with 13 assists over his last 16 games since the Christmas restart.
He also has elite shooting talent on his line with DeBrincat, while Greig has looked great going from the AHL to the NHL and has 10 shots over three games.
Giroux and the Ottawa offense will face Montreal goalie Jake Allen who is coming back from injury and owns a 3.49 GAA and a sub-.900 SV% since December 1 (14 games with a 4-10 SU record).
If you can handle Giroux to record a point at -150 (at Betway), it has the highest win probability, but to record an assist at +130 is returning the best value.
The only knock here is that Giroux plays on the second power play, but with the Canadiens taking penalties at a Top 5 rate and sporting one of the worst penalty kills in hockey, the second unit will get plenty of opportunities tonight.
My best bet: Claude Giroux Over 0.5 assists (+130)
Looking to do some NHL betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Senators vs Canadiens moneyline analysis
It’s pretty easy to see the state of the Montreal Canadiens these days as they are +160 home dogs tonight vs. the Ottawa Senators who sit 24th in points with a 23-26 SU record.
The Canadiens are rolling with a bare-bones lineup and running on fumes heading into an 11-day break. They're missing Cole Caufield who has been shut down for the season as well as Juraj Slavkovsky, Brendan Gallagher, Joel Armia, Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans, and Sean Monahan.
That list is more than extensive for a team that was already thin at scoring talent. Twenty-minute defenseman Joel Edmundson is also questionable after sitting out Ottawa’s 5-0 win on Saturday.
The Senators dominated that last meeting, had no issues racking up quality shots, and finished with over 5.00 expected goals, which is not a common thing — even in 5-0 wins. They did pot an empty-net goal and added another late one, but this was a one-sided game.
The Sens’ top six could not be stopped and the addition of rookie Ridley Greig as the second-line center (two assists and 10 shots in three games) has negated the loss of Josh Norris and motivated this team that is 3-0 SU since Greig’s call-up.
Montreal did have plenty of quality chances in that game despite just 28 shots, but Anton Forsberg finished with over 3.00 goals saved above expected. With Cam Talbot injured, it should be Forsberg’s crease tonight. He’s stopped 80 of 83 shots over the Sens’ current three-game winning streak.
Ottawa saw Sam Montembuealt on Saturday but might get an easier task tonight with Jake Allen set to make his second start since returning from an upper-body injury. Allen missed the majority of January with the injury and allowed four goals on 42 shots in his return vs. the Red Wings last week. Montembault had been playing great and the move to Allen is an advantage for the favorites.
Montreal’s penalty kill ranks second last in the league since December 1 at 68% and making things worse is a team that takes penalties at a Top 5 rate. The Canadiens’ special teams have been putrid on both sides and Ottawa has another big advantage there.
The only edge the home side has is with the last change and just a week ago, Montreal was a +360 home dog to Boston which was the longest any home team has been all season. The Habs might not have the worst record in hockey, but they’re being priced as the worst team by oddsmakers and that isn’t an overreaction.
The Sens are starting to steam after opening at -170 and at -180, that’s a lot of tax for a sub-.500 road team despite a very good win probability. Montreal is a bad team but I’m not rushing to get the Sens at -180 — especially with the variance of this being the last game before a long break.
Senators vs Canadiens Over/Under analysis
Getting enough offense out of the Canadiens is the hardest part of handicapping the total. Montreal did finish with 3.35 expected goals in the 5-0 loss, but this team is just lacking players who can finish, and if bettors like the Sens and the Over, the smarter play might be on an Ottawa team total Over 3.5.
The total opened at 6.5 (-120 to the Under) and hasn’t seen much movement. If we’re comparing it to the Saturday meeting, that game closed at 6.5 (-120) to the Under, and looking at expected goals, likely should have hit the Over. Now with Allen in net, I think this total should lean a little bit more to the Over, but the variance in this game is big.
The last game before a big break (the All-Star break and Christma break) doesn’t always bring out the best of teams and that includes two teams with little-to-no playoff hopes.
Players are looking forward to some time off and this game could go both ways — wide open or just a sloppy mess. Bettors should be aware of the possible outcomes and try to mitigate risks and save the funds for a better schedule spot to bet on.
Even if Ottawa doesn’t play its best game, this is not a Montreal offense I want to ride for an Over 6.5. It’s scored just 21 goals in the last 10 games including getting shut out twice. The power play is non-existent without Caufiled and is scoring at 15% since December 1.
I’m off this total but do lean on the Ottawa team total Over 3.5 at -113.
Senators vs Canadiens betting trend to know
The Senators are 7-1 SU in their last eight games vs. the Atlantic. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs Canadiens.
Senators vs Canadiens game info
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 31, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN2 |
Senators vs Canadiens key injuries
