The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t looked fantastic out of the gates ahead of their Saturday night matchup with the Ottawa Senators, but have the books mispriced Ottawa?
Thanks to some offseason moves, the visitors are nearly 130 points shorter than they were in the last meeting in Toronto, which could be too much of an adjustment.
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Senators vs. Maple Leafs on October 15.
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Senators vs Maple Leafs best odds
Senators vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Through two games, William Nylander leads the Leafs in xGoals, shots on goal, and shot attempts. The Nylander-Tavares-Malgin line has been the best in terms of expected production metrics and gets a great matchup vs. an Ottawa team that will be playing its backup goalie and is weak on the blue line.
Sheldon Keefe is also giving more offensive chances to Nylander’s unit than the Auston Matthews line. Nylander has also looked great on the power play where he's been getting quality looks and has a team-high eight shot attempts.
There's a reason everyone is betting his Over 2.5 shots on goal market which has moved from -135 to nearly -170.
I’m pivoting and getting a solid +178 for Nylander to score today at FanDuel. He's the team’s best offensive player right now and creating more scoring chances than anyone on the team — including Matthews.
Nylander had three goals and three assists in four games with 16 shots last season vs. the Sens. Linemate Denis Malgin’s AGS is also still mispriced at FanDuel (+610) and might be worth a sprinkle.
My best bet: William Nylander anytime goal (+178)
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Senators vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The battle of Ontario will give the Leafs another motivated inferior team on Saturday night. Toronto, king of the bonce-back performances, did very little in the opener vs. a Montreal team that dressed four rookie defensemen, but tightened things up the following night in a 3-2 win over the Capitals.
The Leafs have not looked sharp in net, which is the main concern for the Buds entering their third game. Former Ottawa goalie Matt Murray will likely get the nod. He looked shaky in the opener vs. the Canadiens and his glove hand could be an issue — something that his former team is likely very aware of.
It’s tough for the Leafs to play tight with some of the defensive miscues they’ve had already this season. The second pairing of Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl has been the talk of the town but this is still a Toronto team that is built much better on the blue line than the Senators.
The Senators have plenty of new pieces on the roster this season and although this team is much better on paper than it was a season ago, the new lines could take some time to adjust.
In their 4-1 loss to the Sabres on Thursday as -118 road favorites, the Senators did very little with their scoring opportunities and despite getting 34 shots on net, the quality of the shots was mostly low-danger as Ottawa finished with just 2.18 xGoals, per MoneyPuck.
The -118 ML price for Sens is interesting as it tells me the books have this team slightly overvalued just because of the roster additions in the offseason. Because of how the Senators are priced early in the season, -222 for the home side might be too long as the Leafs closed as -348 favorites in the last meeting in Toronto.
Yes, the Sens got better up front, but they will still be starting their backup goalie in Anton Forsberg, and didn’t have any chemistry in the opener vs. the Sabres.
The Leafs' moneyline and puck line are both too long here and the books might have to readjust their value of the Senators early in the season.
Senators vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Leafs have opened at 6.5 in both of their games this season but have closed at 7, making them 0-1-1 O/U to start the season on the closing number.
The Toronto goaltending has not been great out of the gates with both Murray and Ilya Samsonov sporting goals saved above expected in the negatives. Even with their new goalie tandem, the Over 7 has failed to hit. Through two games, the Leafs have allowed just 49 shots which is the second-best shots/game average behind the Avs.
Toronto also showed in both games that it can play a very careful and slow-paced game when tied or trailing. The Leafs played 20 minutes of no-goal hockey Tuesday during a 2-2 tie and also did the same Thursday vs. Washington before breaking the ice in the third with a Matthews game-winner.
We know Toronto can score in bunches, but Keefe is making solid in-game adjustments that are tightening the pace, and if both goalies had played to expected, the Leafs could be seeing a closing total of 6.5 and not 7.
Therein lies the value for the bettors. Toronto had two prime matchups for very heavy goals, got poor goaltending, and still failed to hit the Over. Now with tonight’s provincial rivalry game, we could see another tight matchup that ultimately could finish 4-1 or 4-2 in favor of the Buds.
I’ll wait again until closer to game time to hit the Under 7. The Leafs started off last season going 15-7 to the Under through their first 22 games.
Senators vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Senators are 0-5 SU in the last five meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs Maple Leafs.
Senators vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, October 15, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Senators vs Maple Leafs key injuries
