Oilers vs Panthers Prop Picks and Best Bets: Florida Needs to Pull Out All the Stops

Prop bet #1: Reinhart anytime goalscorer

Now is the time to buy low on Florida Panthers forward Sam Reinhart, who scored 57 goals in the regular season but has found the back of the net just once in this Stanley Cup Final. Analytically speaking, Reinhart is a prime candidate for positive regression.

There is nobody on Florida with lower goals above expected (-1.7) at 5-on-5 than Reinhart this postseason, which is a pretty remarkable stat given he still ranks second on the team in goals. That just speaks to the level at which Reinhart has played in the offensive zone. He should have more than nine goals through 23 games based on the type of offense he is creating.

Going back to that 5-on-5 remark for Reinhart, that is where I believe he will make the most impact in this game. Among the 16 playoff teams, the Edmonton Oilers rank 11th this postseason in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Reinhart is generating high-percentage shots on goal at even strength, which is going to be a problem for an Edmonton blue line that is surrendering high-danger scoring chances at an elevated rate.

Sam Reinhart: Anytime goal (+150 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Tkachuk anytime goalscorer

I am risking a half-unit on Reinhart to find the back of the net along with another half-unit on his teammate, Matthew Tkachuk. My thinking here is that I am fairly confident at least one of these two guys will score in Game 7, which would guarantee a profit.

If both score, all the better.

Although Tkachuk has scored just one goal over the past six games, he has recorded four or more shots on goal in four of those outings. For a guy of this talent level, those shots are going to start finding the back of the net.

At 5-on-5, Tkachuk ranks fourth on the team in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Finally, at least one of Reinhart or Tkachuk has scored in two of the past four games.

Matthew Tkachuk: Anytime goal (+210 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Bouchard Over 2.5 SOG

Speaking of shots on goal, Evan Bouchard has been robbed of plenty this postseason. While defensemen naturally have an elevated number of their shots blocked, the rate at which Bouchard has been blocked in these playoffs has been absurd (and unsustainable).

He has seen 92 (!) of his shots blocked this postseason, which is 42 more than the next-highest player. That is potentially 3.83 shots on goal per game that have been blocked, which is a massive jump from his regular season average of 2.28.

Despite this unsustainable number of shots being blocked, Bouchard has still recorded three or more shots on goal in three of the first six games of this Cup Final. Considering the expected uptick of those shots getting through, I love his potential to reach at least three SOG once again in Game 7.

Evan Bouchard: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at Bet99)